I say that current AI is AGI. It is not obvious yet, because we haven’t yet connected very complex and fragmented software and data environments – and for R&D to turn into real-world change is a multi-year process anyway.
Even if we stopped and freeze AI development here and now, we’d only realize that we indeed have AGI 2 or 3 years down the road. In some niches it will be faster (software or law) in others slower (complex logistics).
However, AI development is not stopping here and now. It continues to improve – I say exponentially. Even if you are more conservative, then the linear growth still has undoubtedly a large rate of change.
Today (!), we have AI models that evolved from barely completing sentences to writing code that ships to production, we have AI doing PhD-level research, and achieved gold medal-level performance on the International Math Olympiad. AI is solving medical problems that baffle experts.
Again – what is currently mostly manually prompted work in long chat conversations will soon develop into agents that can do almost all knowledge work fully autonomously.
I’m not talking about AI as an assistant, as a co-pilot. It will just straight up finish the work while you are napping on the beach.
The difference between the GPT-3 model and today’s models – whether Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, or ChatGPT o4 – is like comparing a Nokia 1011 to an iPhone 16 Pro. We went from purely text based chats to multimodal understanding – models that can see, hear, and reason across domains simultaneously. AI is starting to genuinely understand context and nuance in ways that feels human.
The next phase is not purely larger AI models, but models that learn continuously. They can remember you, plan and execute multistep tasks over days, weeks, or months.
An AI system that perfectly remembers, understands context, who never sleeps, and gets smarter every day. This is being built today in AI labs around the globe.
We have AGI today, and it is only a matter of time for us to arrive at superintelligent AI systems. Is it 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? 5 years? Irrelevant. Whether it is 1 year or 10 years, the implications are the same: everything is going to change forever.
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