AI

  • This is AGI

    I say that current AI is AGI. It is not obvious yet, because we haven’t yet connected very complex and fragmented software and data environments – and for R&D to turn into real-world change is a multi-year process anyway.

    Even if we stopped and freeze AI development here and now, we’d only realize that we indeed have AGI 2 or 3 years down the road. In some niches it will be faster (software or law) in others slower (complex logistics).

    However, AI development is not stopping here and now. It continues to improve – I say exponentially. Even if you are more conservative, then the linear growth still has undoubtedly a large rate of change.

    Today (!), we have AI models that evolved from barely completing sentences to writing code that ships to production, we have AI doing PhD-level research, and achieved gold medal-level performance on the International Math Olympiad. AI is solving medical problems that baffle experts.

    Again – what is currently mostly manually prompted work in long chat conversations will soon develop into agents that can do almost all knowledge work fully autonomously.

    I’m not talking about AI as an assistant, as a co-pilot. It will just straight up finish the work while you are napping on the beach.

    The difference between the GPT-3 model and today’s models – whether Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, or ChatGPT o4 – is like comparing a Nokia 1011 to an iPhone 16 Pro. We went from purely text based chats to multimodal understanding – models that can see, hear, and reason across domains simultaneously. AI is starting to genuinely understand context and nuance in ways that feels human.

    The next phase is not purely larger AI models, but models that learn continuously. They can remember you, plan and execute multistep tasks over days, weeks, or months.

    An AI system that perfectly remembers, understands context, who never sleeps, and gets smarter every day. This is being built today in AI labs around the globe.

    We have AGI today, and it is only a matter of time for us to arrive at superintelligent AI systems. Is it 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? 5 years? Irrelevant. Whether it is 1 year or 10 years, the implications are the same: everything is going to change forever.

  • How We Use AI

    Whether current AI systems qualify as AGI is beside the point. Five years ago, if you had asked me to define AGI, my answer would’ve closely described what GPT o3 or Gemini 2.5 Pro are now. So if this is AGI, then where are the breakthroughs?

    Valid question. The answer: we are the bottleneck.

    The limitation is no longer the model. The real limitation is that we haven’t really figured out how to use LLMs properly. Even if AI development froze today, and all we have available are o3 and Gemini 2.5 Pro level LLMs, then we would still see a decade of profound disruptions and innovations across entire industries.

    Most users treat AI like Google, a friend, a mentor, or a novelty. Few understand prompting. Those who do don’t even scratch the surface of what is possible when you give AI the right prompt, the relevant context, and access to specific or perhaps proprietary data.

    Worse, we are not augmenting human intelligence, we are outsourcing it. TikTokified workflows, mindless automation, and prompt-template copy-paste culture are commoditizing subpar outcomes. Instead of expanding our minds, we’re paralyzing them.

    The real potential lies hidden in tandem cognition. Reimagining how we work with AI systems in a way that ensures our uniquely human traits (intuition, creativity, vision, …) aren’t ignored, but amplified. Without this shift, outputs will commoditize (across humans and organizations).

    We urgently need two things: first a methodology for extracting maximum value from LLMs and second a philosophy for not replacing our human genius, but empowering it.

    The future is not AI versus human. It is human with AI, at full capacity. Currently, the focus is on maximum capacity for AI compute. Now it’s time we focus on maximum capacity for human genius.

  • The First Principles of a Post-AGI Business

    OpenAI released its new o3 models and numerous people argue that this is in fact Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – in other words, an AI system that is on par with human intelligence. Even if o3 is not yet AGI, the emphasis now lies on “yet,” and – considering the exponential progression – we can expect AGI to arrive within months or maximum one to two years.

    According to OpenAI, it only took 3 months to go from the o1 model to the o3 model. This is a 4x+ acceleration relative to previous progress. If this speed of AI advancement is maintained, it means that by the end of 2025 we will be as much ahead of o3 as o3 is ahead of GPT-3 (released in May 2020). And, after achieving AGI, the self-reinforcing feedback loop will only further accelerate exponential improvements of these AI systems.

    But, most anti-intuitively, even after we have achieved AGI, it will for quite some time look as if nothing has happened. You won’t feel any change and your job and business will feel safe and untouchable. Big fallacy. We can expect that after AGI it will take many months of not 1-2 years for the real transformations to happen. Why? Because AGI in and of itself does not release value into the economy. It will be much more important to apply it. But as AGI becomes cheaper, agentic, and embedded into the world, we will see a transformation-explosion – replacing those businesses and jobs that are unprepared.

    I thought a lot about the impact the announced – and soon to be released – o3 model, and the first AGI model are going to have.

    To make it short: I am extremely confident that any skill or process that can be digitized will be. As a result, the majority of white-collar and skilled jobs are on track for massive disruption or elimination.

    Furthermore, I think many experts and think tanks are fooling themselves by believing that humans will maintain “some edge” and work peacefully side-by-side with an AI system. I don’t think AGI will augment knowledge workers – i.e. anyone working with language, code, numbers, or any kind of specialized software – it will replace them!

    So, if your job or business relies purely on standardized cognitive tasks, you are racing toward the cliff’s edge, and it is time to pivot now!

    Let’s start with the worst. Businesses and jobs in which you should pivot immediately – or at least not enter as of today – include but are not limited to anything that involves sitting at a computer:

    • anything with data entry or data processing (run as fast as you can!)
    • anything that involves writing (copywriting, technical writing, editing, proofreading, translation)
    • most coding and web development
    • SAAS (won’t exist in a couple of years)
    • banking (disrupted squared: AGI + Blockchain)
    • accounting and auditing (won’t exist as a job in 5-10 years)
    • insurance (will be disrupted)
    • law (excluding high-stake litigation, negotiation, courtroom advocacy)
    • any generic design, music, and video creation (graphic design, stock photography, stock videos)
    • market and investment research and analysis (AI will take over 100%)
    • trading, both quantitative and qualitative (don’t exit but profit now, but expect to be disrupted within 5 years)
    • any middle-layer-management (project and product management)
    • medical diagnostics (will be 100% AI within 5 years)
    • most standardized professional / consulting services

    However, I believe that in high-stakes domains (health, finance, governance), regulators and the public will demand a “human sign-off”. So if you are in accounting, auditing, law, or finance I’d recommend pivoting to a business model where the ability to anchor trust becomes a revenue source.

    The question is, where should you pivot to or what business to start in 2025?

    My First Principles of a Post-AGI Business Model

    First, even as AI becomes infallible, human beings will still crave real, raw, direct trust relationships. People form bonds around shared experiences, especially offline ones. I believe a truly future-proof venture leverages these primal instincts that machines can never replicate at a deeply visceral level. Nevertheless, I believe it is a big mistake to assume that humans will “naturally” stick together just because we are the same species. AGI might quickly appear more reliable, less selfish than most human beings, and have emotional intelligence. So a business build upon the thesis of the “human advantage” must expertly harness and establish emotional ties, tribal belonging, and shared experiences – all intangible values that are far more delicate and complex than logic.

    First Principle: Operate in the Physical World

    • If your product or service can be fully digitalized and delivered via the cloud, AGI can replicate it with near-zero marginal cost
    • Infuse strategic real-world constraints (logistics, location-specific interactions, physical limitations, direct relationships) that create friction and scarcity – where AI alone will struggle

    Second Principle: Create Hyper Niche Human Experiences

    • The broader audience, the easier it is for AI to dominate. Instead, cultivate specialized groups and subcultures with strong in-person and highly personalized experiences.
    • Offer creative or spiritual elements that defy pure rational patterns and thus remain less formulaic

    Third Principle: Emphasize Adaptive, Micro-Scale Partnerships

    • Align with small, local, or specialized stakeholders. Use alliances with artisan suppliers, local talents, subject-matter experts, and so on.
    • Avoid single points of failure; build a decentralized network that is hard for a single AI to replicate or disrupt

    Fourth Principle: Embed Extreme Flexibility

    • Structured, hierarchical organizations are easily out-iterated by AI that can reorganize and optimize instantly
    • Cultivate fluid teams with quickly reconfigurable structures, use agile, project based collaboration that can pivot as soon AGI-based competition arises

    Opportunity Vectors

    With all of that in mind, there are niches that before looked unattractive, because less scalable, that today offer massive opportunities – let’s call them opportunity vectors.

    The first opportunity vector I have already touched upon:

    • Trust and Validation Services: Humans verifying or certifying that a certain AI outcome is ethically or legally sound – while irrational, it is exactly what humans will insist on, particularly where liability is high (medicine, finance, law, infrastructure)
    • Frontier Sectors with Regulatory and Ethical Friction: Think of markets where AI will accelerate R&D but human oversight, relationship management, and accountability remain essential: genetic engineering, biotech, advanced materials, quantum computing, etc.

    The second opportunity vector focuses on the human edge:

    • Experience & Community: Live festivals, immersive events, niche retreats, or spiritual explorations – basically any scenario in which emotional energy and a human experience is the core product
    • Rare Craftsmanship & Creative Quirks: Think of hyper-personalized items, physical artwork, artisanal or hands-on creations. Items that carry an inherent uniqueness or intangible meaning that an AI might replicate in design, but can’t replicate in “heritage” or provenance.

    Risk Tactics

    Overall, the best insurance is fostering a dynamic brand and a loyal community that invests personally and emotionally in you. People will buy from those whose values they trust. If you stand for something real, you create an emotional bond that AI can’t break. I’m not talking about superficial corporate social responsibility (nobody cares) but about authenticity that resonates on a near-spiritual level.

    As you build your business, erect an ethical moat by providing “failsafe” services where your human personal liability and your brand acts as a shield for AI decisions. This creates trust and differentiation among anonymous pure-AGI play businesses.

    Seek and create small, specialized, local, or digital micro-monopolies – areas too tiny or fractal for the “big AI players” to devote immediate resources to. Over time, multiply these micro-monopolies by rolling them up under one trusted brand.

    Furthermore, don’t avoid AI. You cannot out-AI the AI. So as you build a business on the human edge moat, you should still harness AI to do 90% of the repetitive and analytic tasks – this frees your human capital to build human relationships, solve ambiguous problem, or invent new offerings.

    Bet on What Makes Us Human

    To summarize, AI is logical, combinatorial intelligence. The advancements in AI will commoditize logic and disrupt any job and business that is mainly build upon logic as capital. Human – on the other hand – is authenticity. What makes human human and your brand authentic are elements of chaos, empathy, spontaneity. In this context, human is fostering embodied, emotional, culturally contextual, physically immersive experiences. Anything that requires raw creativity, emotional intelligence, local presence, or unique personal relationships will be more AI resilient.

    Therefore, a Post-AGI business must involve:

    1. Tangibility: Physical goods, spaces, unique craftsmanship
    2. Human Connection: Emotional, face-to-face, improvisational experiences
    3. Comprehensive Problem Solving: Complex negotiations, messy real-world situations, diverse stakeholder management

    The inverse list of AGI proof industries involve some or multiple aspects of that:

    • Physical, In-Person, Human-Intensive Services
      • Healthcare: Nursing, Physical therapy, Hands-on caregiving
      • Skilled trades & craftsmanship
    • High-Level Strategy & Complex Leadership
      • Diplomacy, Negotiation, Trust building
      • Visionary entrepreneurship
    • Deep Emotional / Experiential Offerings
      • Group experiences, retreats, spiritual or therapeutic gatherings
      • Artistic expression that thrives on “imperfection”, physical presence, or spontaneous creativity
    • Infrastructure for AGI
      • Human-based auditing/verification
      • Physical data center operations & advanced hardware
      • Application and embedment of AI in the forms of AGI agents, algorithmic improvements, etc. to make it suitable for everyday tasks and workflow

    The real differentiator is whether a business is anchored in the physical world’s complexity, emotional trust, or intangible brand relationships. Everything pure data-driven or standardized is on the chopping block – imminently.

  • AI-to-AI Communication

    Nowadays, most emails I receive – including technical and legal ones – are undoubtedly written by ChatGPT. Which I’m okay with – but I find it rather funny that I now have to read what an AI has written only to input the context myself into my AI system. We are effectively constraining AI systems to communicate via human intermediaries – which is a laughably stupid and cognitively inefficient approach.

    I think it is wasted energy to make AIs even better at mimicking human communication – this energy is better used in developing AI-to-AI communication protocols that bypass human language entirely. Instead of exchanging emails written in human language, AIs should directly exchange action items, structured data, intent vectors, or probabilistic models. How valuable is it really in making AI communication more human-readable? I believe it is about freeing AIs to communicate in their “native language” while humans simply set high-level objectives and constraints. No latency, no information loss, no mental drainage, more time for actual human communication and interaction.

  • Understanding: Human vs. Machine

    Whether we understand a text depends on several factors. First, do we recognize and understand the alphabet? Do we understand the language? Assuming both, we can read the words that are written. But this doesn’t mean we understand the text. Understanding what is written depends on whether we have the necessary contextual knowledge and conceptual framework to interpret the meaning behind each word. On a ‘word level’ alone, language is more than a sequence of symbols. Each word and each combination of words conveys in and of itself ideas that are shaped by cultural, historical, and experiential factors.

    Consider the word “football”. In the United States, “football” refers to American football, a sport with an oval ball and heavily physical play. In the UK (and most of the world), “football” is a game played primarily with the feet, a round ball, and two rectangle goals. The same word triggers entirely different images and cultural associations depending on the context in which it is used.

    Or consider the word “gift”. In English, “gift” means a present, something given voluntarily to another person. In German, “Gift” means poison. The same word evokes – again – entirely different meanings depending on the language.

    Even if we can read and comprehend the literal meaning of words, true understanding requires an ability to grasp the underlying concepts, nuances, and intentions, as well as to connect the information to prior knowledge or experiences. If we don’t have these deeper connections, we may be able to read the text, but fail to genuinely “understand” it in a meaningful way.

    When we talk about “understanding” a text, we are simply processing patterns of language based on previous experiences and context. Meaning emerges when we can connect the symbols to prior knowledge and concepts we have already internalized. In other words, the idea of “meaning” arrives from a vast database of stored experiences.

    This becomes clear when we deal with complex technical, scientific, or philosophical texts. Understanding these require not only familiarity with the language, but also a deeper technical or conceptual foundation.

    For example, take a physics paper discussing “quantum entanglement.” The words themselves may be understandable to anyone familiar with basic English, but without a solid grasp of quantum mechanics and concepts like wave-particle duality, superposition, or the mathematical formalism behind quantum states, the meaning of the text is lost. The read can follow the sentences, but the true meaning remains obscure.

    In essence, understanding a text – especially a complex one – goes beyond recognizing words or knowing their dictionary definitions. It depends on an interplay between language and thought, where meaning is unlocked through familiarity with the underlying concepts, cultural context, and prior knowledge. True understanding is furthermore a learning process. Understanding not only demands a proper intellectual preparation, but also the ability to integrate new information from the text with what we already know.

    With that in mind, can a machine understand text in the same way humans do?

    A large language model (LLM) also processes patterns of language, recognizing text based on vast amounts of data. On a surface level, it mimics understanding by assembling words in contextually appropriate ways, but does this equate to “understanding” in the human sense?

    When humans read, we don’t just parse symbols, we draw from a rich background of lived experiences, emotional intelligence, and interdisciplinary knowledge. This allows us to understand metaphors, infer unstated intentions, or question the credibility of the text.

    Back to our example of “quantum entanglement”. When a trained physicist reads the physics paper, they relate the written sentences to physical phenomena they’ve studied, experiments they’ve conducted, and debates he is involved in.

    By contrast, a LLM operates by recognizing patterns from its vast training data, generating contextually relevant responses through probabilistic models. While it does this impressively, we might argue that for true understanding, a LLM lacks the aforementioned deeper conceptual and experiential framework that humans develop through real-world experience and reasoning.

    While it is obvious that LLMs do not experience the world as humans do, this does not mean that LLM are not or will never be capable of understanding and reasoning.

    LLMs do engage in a form of reasoning already, they manipulate patterns, make connections, and draw conclusions based on the data they’ve encountered. The average LLM of today can process abstract ideas like “quantum entanglement” – arguably – more effectively than the average human merely by referencing the extensive patterns in its data, even though they are not capable of linking this to sensory and emotional experience.

    Sensory and emotional experiences, such as the joy of scoring a first goal in a 4th grade sports class or the sorrow of watching one’s favorite team suffer a 0:7 defeat on a cold, rainy autumn day, create deep personal and nuanced connections to texts about “football.” This allows humans to interpret language with personal depth, inferring meaning not just from the words themselves, but from the emotions, memories, and sensory details attached to them.

    The absence of emotional grounding may limit LLMs in certain ways, but does it mean they cannot develop forms of understanding and reasoning that, while different, can still be highly effective?

    For example, a mathematician can solve an equation without needing to “experience the numbers”, meaning they don’t need to physically sense what “2” or “π” feels like to perform complex calculations. Their understanding comes from abstract reasoning and logical rules, not from emotional or sensory connection.

    While a LLM cannot yet solve mathematical problems, in a transferred sense, a LLM might “understand” a concept by connecting ideas through data relationships without needing direct experience. It recognizes patterns and derives logical outcomes, like a mathematician working through an equation.

    One example for this is language translation. While a professional human translator might rely on personal cultural experience to choose the right phrasing for nuance, in many cases, LLMs are already able to process and translate languages with remarkable accuracy by identifying patterns in usage, grammar, and structure across million of texts. They don’t have personal experience of what it is like to live in each culture or speak a language natively, they nevertheless outperform humans in translating text (think of speed).

    Understanding, then, is the process of combining knowledge, reasoning, and in our human case, personal experience. In that sense, is it impossible for LLMs to understand and reason, or lies the difference more in what LLM ground their reasoning on?

    Humans reason through real-life experience, intuition, emotions, and sensory input, like the joy of scoring a goal or the gut-feeling resulting from a suspicious facial expression. LLMs, on the other hand, don’t have this kind of grounding, they operate purely on data.

    Again, does this mean LLMs cannot reason? LLMs – despite lacking this personal grounding – still show early forms of reasoning. This reasoning is powerful, especially in cases where personal experience is not required or less important. In fact, understanding may not even require physical or emotional experiences in the same way humans are biologically conditioned to need them. If reasoning is fundamentally about making accurate predictions and drawing logical conclusions, then LLMs are – arguably – already surpassing humans in certain domains of abstract reasoning.

    With advancements in AI architecture, it is likely that LLMs will one day develop a form of “conceptual grounding” based purely on data patterns and logical consistency. We will arrive at new forms of understanding and reasoning that differ from, but rival, human cognition.

    The limitations of LLM are what makes human human: an inherent drive to pursue truth and question assumptions. While LLMs – arguably – reason by connecting dots and generating solutions, they lack the intentionality and self-awareness that drives human reasoning.

    Ultimately, the question of whether machines can in fact understand and reason is less about how accurately it is replicating human cognition and more about recognizing and harnessing a new form of intelligence.

  • The Sovereign AI Startup

    In the summer of 1995, Netscape went public, igniting the dot-com boom and ushering in the Internet age. That moment marked a fundamental shift in how businesses were built and run. Today, we are on the cusp of an equally transformative moment: the dawn of the AI era.

    Imagine a world where a startup founder wakes up, grabs a coffee, and sits down not with a co-founder or a team of bleary-eyed developers, but with an AI. This AI isn’t just a tool or an assistant; it’s a full-fledged partner in the entrepreneurial journey. It helps generate and validate business ideas, build and manage teams, develop products, and make strategic decisions in real time. All while keeping the company small, agile, and fiercely focused on its mission.

    In this essay, inspired by this Tweet from Paul Graham, we’ll explore how exponential AI – artificial intelligence that is rapidly increasing in power and capability – will fundamentally transform the way startups operate. We’ll challenge the long-held belief that successful companies must inevitably become large. Instead, we’ll examine how AI might enable a new breed of startup: the Sovereign AI Startup.

    These Sovereign AI Startups will stay small by design, leveraging AI to achieve outsized impact with minimal headcount. They’ll operate with unprecedented efficiency and agility, free from the bureaucratic bloat that typically comes with growth. Most importantly, they’ll empower founders to focus on what truly matters: the vision, the strategy, and the relentless pursuit of creating something new and valuable in the world.

    But to understand why this shift is so revolutionary, we first need to grapple with a counterintuitive truth: companies tend to get worse as they get bigger. I call this The Size Theory of Company Decay. By examining why this happens, we’ll see how AI offers a potential cure for this seemingly inevitable decline.

    We’ll then explore how AI will reshape every aspect of the entrepreneurial process, from ideation to execution, from team-building to go-to-market strategies. We’ll look at a real-world example of a company that has achieved remarkable results with a small core team, and imagine how AI could supercharge these approaches.

    Along the way, we’ll consider the broader implications of this shift. How will it change the nature of work and creativity? Will it democratize entrepreneurship, allowing underdogs from anywhere in the world to compete on a global stage? And what new legal and regulatory frameworks will we need to support these AI-native companies?

    But first, let’s take a step back and understand a common misconception: that successful startups must get big, why we believe that, and how AI will change it.

    The Size Theory of Company Decay

    The idea that successful startups must grow into large companies is deeply ingrained in our entrepreneurial culture. We’ve been conditioned to equate success with scale – more employees, more offices, more layers of management. This belief stems from a pre-digital, pre-AI era when growth often did require a proportional increase in human resources. But it’s a model that’s showing its age.

    Consider the traditional growth trajectory: a startup begins with a small, scrappy team. As it gains traction, it hires more people to handle increased demand, expand into new markets, or develop new products. Before long, what started as a lean, agile startup becomes a sprawling organization with hundreds or thousands of employees. Along the way, it often loses the very qualities that made it successful in the first place – speed, flexibility, and a laser focus on solving customer problems. This is what I call company decay.

    At the heart of company decay lies a paradox: the very things that drive a startup’s initial success become the seeds of its eventual decline. It’s as if success itself carries within it the DNA of failure. But why?

    Think of a startup as a finely tuned machine, where every part knows its function and works in perfect harmony with the others. Now imagine that machine growing larger and more complex with each passing day. What happens?

    First, communication breaks down. In a small startup, information flows freely. Everyone knows what everyone else is doing. But as the company grows, the number of potential communication channels explodes exponentially. Suddenly, you need meetings to plan other meetings. Information gets stuck in departmental silos. The machine starts to sputter.

    Then there’s the cultural shift. In the early days, everyone is a true believer, united by a shared mission to change the world. But as you add more people, that sense of purpose gets diluted. New hires are there for a job, not a crusade. The machine loses its soul.

    This cultural erosion bleeds into the company’s vision. Peter Thiel calls it the loss of “definite optimism.” The bold question of “How can we change the world?” gets buried under layers of management and short-term thinking. It morphs into “How can we protect what we have?” The machine forgets why it was built in the first place.

    As if these internal changes weren’t enough, external pressures mount. Public companies face relentless pressure to meet quarterly targets. Long-term investments in innovation are sacrificed on the altar of short-term gains. The fear of a stock price drop drives decisions that are poison to the company’s long-term health.

    But perhaps the most insidious change is in decision-making. In a small startup, decisions are made quickly by people close to the problem. In a large company, decision-making becomes a bureaucratic nightmare. No one wants to make a tough call for fear of repercussions. Responsibility becomes so diffuse that no one feels truly accountable. The machine grinds to a halt.

    All of these factors – and many more – compound each other, creating a vicious cycle of inefficiency and stagnation. It’s as if there’s an invisible force pulling successful companies towards mediocrity, much like how gravity inevitably pulls objects back to earth.

    How bad can it be?

    Firing 12 Floors

    Carl Icahn once told a hilarious story of him acquiring a company called ACF Industries in the early 1980s. Upon taking control, he visited their New York office, which occupied 12 floors of prime real estate. As he tried to understand what each floor did, he lost himself in a miracle of bureaucracy and unclear job functions. Despite spending days going from floor to floor, Icahn couldn’t figure out what these people actually did for the company.

    Frustrated, Icahn decided to visit the company’s manufacturing operation in St. Louis. There, he met with Joe, the head of operations, who gave him a clear picture of how the business actually worked. When Icahn asked Joe how many of the New York office staff he needed to support his operation, Joe responded: “minus 30”.

    Unsure what to do, Icahn paid a couple of consultants $250,000 to find out what these people in New York actually do. Three weeks later, the consultants came back with hundreds of pages and the blunt answer: “we don’t know what they do either.”

    Icahn ended up firing everyone in the New York office – all 12 floors. The company continued to operate without a hitch. Icahn said that he never received a single complaint or inquiry – it was as if those 12 floors of people never existed.

    This story sounds so ridiculous (I highly recommend watching the 8.5 minute video) that it raises a valid question for discussion: Even without AI – how many employees in large companies are actually productive and necessary for the core operations of the business?

    As companies grow, particularly during periods of hyper-growth fueled by large capital infusions, they often accumulate layers of middle management, support staff, and specialized roles that may not directly contribute to the bottom line. The pressure to allocate capital quickly can lead to hasty hiring decisions and the creation of positions that look good on paper but add little real value. It’s easy to justify each hire individually, but harder to step back and question whether the overall organizational structure is truly optimal. 

    I assume that leaders often know that their organizations have become bloated, but they delay taking action due to the psychological toll of firing employees. Firing is extremely difficult, both for those making the decision and for those losing their jobs. This emotional barrier can lead companies to maintain inefficient structures far longer than is economically justified, fooling themselves into believing that all roles are necessary.

    Carl Icahn’s story of firing 12 floors of employees without any noticeable impact on the company’s operations illustrates how inefficient large organizations can become. But it is not limited to industrial corporations.

    At its peak, WeWork had over 12,500 employees, Uber over 32,000 employees – we have to wonder: how many of these people are truly essential to the core business?

    It’s easy to fall into the trap of equating headcount with productivity or success. The job of a founder and executive is not to build empires of employees, but to lead and solve problems efficiently. Sometimes, that means taking a hard look at your organization and asking yourself: do I really need all these 12 floors?

    Elon Musk, like Carl Icahn, not only asked this question as he acquired Twitter (now X) – he acted. When Elon Musk acquired the company in 2022, it had over 7,500 employees. In a move that shocked many, he promptly laid off about 80% of the workforce, leaving the company with roughly 1,500 employees.

    In an interview with WSJ, Elon Musk said that Twitter had “a lot of people doing things that didn’t seem to have a lot of value,” and that “Twitter was in a situation where you’d have a meeting of 10 people and one person with an accelerator and nine with a set of brakes, so you didn’t go very far.”

    He didn’t think that this was unique to Twitter and continued that other big tech companies could cut jobs without impacting productivity.

    Conventional wisdom suggested that such a drastic reduction would cripple the platform’s ability to function, let alone innovate. Yet – just as ACF Industries – X has not only continued to operate but has arguably accelerated its pace of innovation. This suggests that a significant portion of Twitter’s previous workforce may have been redundant or focused on non-essential tasks.

    The Example of Telegram

    The bloat we see in companies like Twitter, Uber, and WeWork isn’t just a problem for established tech giants. More importantly is it a cautionary tale for every startup founder. These companies, once lean and agile, fell into the trap of equating headcount growth with progress. But what if the next generation of startups can avoid this fate entirely?

    Imagine a startup that can scale to serve millions of users without the historical explosion in headcount. This isn’t science fiction. Telegram is already a prime example of how a small core team of 60 team members – of which 30 are engineers – can serve more than 900 monthly users.

    In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Pavel Durov, Telegram’s founder, described in greater detail how he built Telegram by combining a clear vision with ruthless efficiency.

    Pavel Durov has crafted an organizational structure so lean it borders on ascetic. He’s the sole director, equity holder, and product manager, working directly with every engineer and designer. There’s no HR department; instead, Durov recruits through coding contests, identifying top talent through performance rather than resumes. This isn’t just cost-cutting; it’s a fundamental rethinking of how a tech company can operate. Telegram has never run an ad, yet it’s challenging giants like WhatsApp and WeChat.

    Durov hasn’t just built a messaging app; he’s created a blueprint for how startups can scale to enormous impact with minimal headcount. In doing so, he’s not just saving on salaries; he’s eliminating the communication overhead and bureaucratic friction that leads to the decay most companies experience as they grow.

    I believe Telegram isn’t an anomaly – it is a glimpse into the future of what companies can achieve when they reject conventional wisdom about organizational structure and embrace radical efficiency. And by bringing AI into the equation, I believe this is the near future of entrepreneurship.

    Telegram is a great example that companies don’t have to get big after all. Yet, how small is big enough?

    Teams Smaller Than Dunbar’s Number

    Robin Dunbar, a British anthropologist, suggests that the conscious decision to stay small has real advantages. In his first paper, “Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates,” Dunbar proposed that humans can comfortably maintain only about 150 stable relationships. This limit, known as Dunbar’s Number, is becoming fascinatingly relevant to startups, especially as AI begins to enable startups to operate extremely efficiently with fewer than 150 employees.

    Scientifically, Dunbar’s number makes sense. The neocortex, the part of the brain responsible for conscious thought and language, can only process so much social information. Beyond 150 relationships, we struggle to keep track of the complex web of who knows whom and how they relate. In a startup, where relationships and culture are paramount, exceeding this number can lead to breakdowns in communication and cohesion – leading to company decay.

    Psychologically, smaller teams are more conducive to trust and intimacy. With fewer people, it’s easier to understand each person’s strengths, weaknesses, and quirks. This understanding creates psychological safety – the confidence that you can take risks and be vulnerable without fear of embarrassment or retribution. Psychological safety is critical for the kind of innovative, out-of-the-box thinking that startups need to thrive.

    Philosophically, too, there’s an elegance to the idea of a small, tight-knit team taking on Goliath challenges. It’s the story of David and Goliath, the rebel against the empire. Small teams can be more agile, more adaptable, more resilient. They can make decisions quickly without getting bogged down in bureaucracy. You can pivot on a dime when circumstances change.

    Startups that stay below Dunbar’s number indefinitely – can avoid company decay. But how can a small team hope to compete with the resources and scale of a large corporation?

    The Era of Sovereign AI Startups

    The book The Sovereign Individual predicted that the information revolution would empower individuals over institutions. Now, 27 years after it was first published, I believe this trend is accelerating, especially in entrepreneurship. Just as the personal computer and the internet gave rise to The Sovereign Individual, exponential AI will give rise to what we might call The Sovereign AI Startup.

    Today, a single founder armed with nothing more than a laptop can conceive, validate and launch a new business in a matter of days. Add a Starlink Internet connection and they can do it from anywhere in the world. AI will accelerate and simplify this process even further:

    1. With generative AI, you can quickly prototype new products or services and iterate based on real-time customer feedback.
    2. With predictive AI, you can identify untapped market niches and optimize their offerings for maximum impact.
    3. And with autonomous AI agents, you can automate everything from customer support to supply chain management, allowing them to scale their operations with minimal overhead.

    In this AI-first world, a team of five might wield the capabilities of what once required 500. Imagine a customer support ‘department’ that’s a hyper-intelligent AI, learning and improving with each interaction, available 24/7 without a single human on the payroll. Envision data analysis so sophisticated and instantaneous that it feels like precognition, surfacing insights before you even know to look for them. Consider project management AI that doesn’t just track deadlines, but anticipates bottlenecks, suggests optimal resource allocation, and even mediates team conflicts with the wisdom of a seasoned executive.

    AI will become the antidote to corporate decay, taking over many of the routine tasks that often justify additional hiring in growing companies. With AI as a force multiplier, a small team can accomplish big things.  From data analysis and report generation to customer support and project management, AI will perform a significant portion of the work that currently requires human employees. This will allow companies to increase their output and impact without increasing their headcount proportionately. They can target their efforts with laser precision, focusing on the areas where human ingenuity is most needed. You can respond to customer needs and market changes with the speed and personalization that only a small, nimble team can deliver.

    Sovereign AI Startups, unencumbered by legacy systems and bureaucratic inertia, will be able to outmaneuver established players, disrupt industries, and create entirely new markets. They will be able to tap into a global pool of talent and resources and collaborate with other sovereign entities in fluid, ad-hoc networks that transcend geographic and institutional boundaries.

    The Convergence of Exponential Technologies

    It is not just AI as a technology that will change the way startups operate. The convergence of AI with other exponential technologies will revolutionize hardware development, enabling smart teams to achieve what once required armies of engineers and massive factories.

    For example, advanced robotics in fully automated factories will allow sovereign AI startups to access world-class manufacturing on demand, to prototype, iterate, and even manufacture complex devices with minimal human involvement.

    3D printing – for example – is evolving at breakneck speed, is already producing not just plastic prototypes but fully functional electronic components – which in the future will integrate seamlessly with AI-designed circuitry.

    In the future, a Sovereign AI Startup will be able to conceptualize a groundbreaking medical device, have AI optimize its design for both function and manufacturability, simulate its performance across millions of virtual scenarios, and then set autonomous robots to work building and testing physical prototypes. Machine learning algorithms will analyze test results in real-time, suggesting improvements that can be immediately implemented in the next iteration. The entire process – from idea to market-ready hardware product – could happen in weeks rather than years.

    This will lower the barriers to entry for hardware startups, allowing a proliferation of niche products tailored to specific needs that big companies might overlook. We’ll see an explosion of creativity as inventors are freed from the constraints of traditional manufacturing.

    I believe a world in which small teams can rapidly bring complex hardware to market will accelerate the pace of technological progress exponentially. The next world-changing invention might not come from a tech giant or a well-funded lab, but perhaps from a handful of determined individuals in a Sovereign AI Startup.

    The AI-Native Organizational Design

    As AI continues to advance, we can expect to see a rise in Sovereign AI Startups – companies built from the ground up with AI as a core part of their DNA – each hyper-focused on solving a specific problem or serving a niche market. These startups will be characterized by small, agile teams that – like Telegram – stay below Dunbar’s number and leverage AI to achieve outsized impact.

    The shift will bring with it a new paradigm of organizational design. One in which companies leverage AI not just as a tool, but as a key stakeholder and a core system that is intricately woven into every facet of a startup’s existence.

    The founder and visionary will be at the heart of the Sovereign AI Startup, providing the idea, overall direction, and purpose. The founder will work with a human core team, consisting of a small group of highly skilled individuals who focus on strategic, creative, and uniquely human tasks.

    An AI Core System will not just be a set of tools – as we know it today – but a central part of the organization, handling a wide range of operational, analytical, and decision-support functions.

    An important element of The Sovereign AI Startup will be its external network, a fluid ecosystem of on-demand talent, partners, and contributors that the company can tap into as needed.

    A structure like this allows for maximum flexibility and efficiency, enabling the company to stay lean while accessing a broad range of capabilities. It will allow the founder to keep the team size below Dunbar’s number with a human core team, while leveraging AI and a distributed external network to achieve scale. 

    This organizational design challenges the traditional notions of what constitutes a company, blurring the lines between internal and external, human and machine. As a result, AI entrepreneurs can move faster, decide smarter, and tackle challenges of unprecedented scope and complexity – independent of their physical location.

    Post-AI Organizational Collaboration

    With AI becoming an integral and core part of any organization, we will not only have to rethink how startups are organized internally, but also how organizations collaborate with each other.

    Benoit Vandevivere, who commented on Paul Graham’s post, argued that our current models of business organization are relics of a pre-digital, pre-AI era. This makes sense as we are arguably still operating with organizational structures and legal frameworks that were designed for a world of physical offices, face-to-face meetings, and human-only decision making.

    Benoit mentioned the idea of “artificial neural networks interconnecting natural neural networks” – the idea sounds complicated yet is a powerful idea for a future where the boundaries between companies become more fluid, with AI systems facilitating seamless collaboration and information flow across organizational lines.

    In the future, a startup might not just be a discrete entity, but a node in a larger network of interconnected businesses, each specializing in what they do best and relying on AI to coordinate their efforts. The “company” as we know it might evolve into something more akin to a dynamic, AI-mediated coalition of talent and resources, assembling and reassembling as needed to tackle specific challenges or opportunities.

    AI-Native Jurisdictions

    As we reimagine the nature of companies in the AI era, we must also consider the legal and regulatory frameworks that will enable these new organizational structures to thrive. Traditional jurisdictions, with their legacy laws and regulations, may struggle to accommodate the fluid, borderless nature of AI-native startups. This is where innovative legal zones like the Catawba Digital Economic Zone or a “network state” – as proposed by Balaji Srinivasan – come into play.

    The Catawba Digital Economic Zone (CDEC), established on Native American tribal land in South Carolina, is pioneering a regulatory environment tailored for digital businesses and cryptocurrencies. It offers a streamlined business registration process, favorable tax treatment, and regulations that are more attuned to the needs of AI and Web3 startups. But it’s not alone. For over a decade, Estonia’s e-Residency program allows digital entrepreneurs to start and run a business in the EU from anywhere in the world. Wyoming has positioned itself as a crypto-friendly state with laws recognizing DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) as legal entities. And in the Caribbean, Próspera in Honduras is creating a charter city with regulations designed for the digital age.

    These jurisdictions are fundamentally rethinking governance for the AI and Web3 era. They’re creating environments where smart contracts have legal standing, where AI agents could potentially hold rights and responsibilities, and where the lines between human and machine decision-making are acknowledged and accommodated in law.

    For founders building AI-native startups, these new jurisdictions offer more than just tax benefits or easier registration. They provide a legal and regulatory sandbox to experiment with new forms of organization and governance. They allow startups to operate in a framework that understands and supports their unique needs, from data sovereignty issues to the complexities of AI-human collaboration.

    In the coming years, the most successful AI startups may not just be those with the best technology or the most efficient operations, but those that have strategically positioned themselves in jurisdictions that truly understand and support their needs.

    The Rise of the Underdogs

    The rise of Sovereign AI Startups incorporated in AI-Native jurisdictions is a game-changer for entrepreneurs of smaller and underprivileged countries who don’t have access to talent pools or the legal infrastructure that exists in ‘top-tier’ countries like the United States, Singapore, or Hong Kong.

    Traditionally, they have been at a disadvantage in the global economy, unable to compete with larger countries that have deeper reservoirs of skilled workers and more favorable legal systems.

    But this is changing. By leveraging AI, making use of the remote talent pool, and favorable jurisdictions, a small team in a ‘developing country’ could potentially outperform a much larger team in Silicon Valley. Why? Because AI can level the playing field, handling tasks that once required specialized expertise. A founder in a remote country no longer needs to recruit a team of world-class engineers, data scientists, and marketers. Instead, they can leverage AI agents, on-demand experts, and freelance specialists to handle much of this work. By digitally setting up a LLC or C Corp in the Catawba Digital Economic Zone, they have access to a respected legal entity that can compete globally.

    Furthermore, we can expect AI to evolve into a bona fide co-founder. Founders who live outside of major startup ecosystems can struggle to find the right co-founder for their business idea. In the future, instead of looking for a human co-founder, founders will first set-up an AI Co-founder. AI will also take on other supportive roles that have traditionally been filled by humans – like mentors and advisory boards.

    Already today, smart entrepreneurs use advanced AI prompting in tools like ChatGPT or Claude to have a one-on-one mentoring session with Paul Graham, solve engineering problems with Richard Feynman, or to assemble an entire virtual advisory board of industry titans to stress-test their business strategy, overcome biases, and make smarter decisions. 

    In addition, the rise of remote work means these startups can tap into a global talent pool for specialized skills they do need, without requiring relocation. They can build truly decentralized teams while maintaining a lean local presence. This could lead to a new wave of innovation coming from unexpected places, as entrepreneurs in these underdog countries leverage their unique perspectives and local knowledge to solve global problems.

    Unleashing Human Creativity

    Smaller, agile companies and a lower barrier to entry is only one dimension of AI entrepreneurship. What is even more important is how AI has the potential to unleash and amplify human creativity.

    At its core, entrepreneurship is about creating something new and valuable in the world. It’s about seeing possibilities that others miss, and having the courage and determination to make them real. This is a fundamentally creative act, one that requires not just technical skill but also imagination, intuition, and a deep understanding of the human condition.

    As AI takes over more of the routine tasks of starting and running a business, I believe it will free entrepreneurs to focus more on this creative core. Instead of getting bogged down in the mechanics of incorporation, accounting, and HR, founders will be able to devote their energy to the higher-level work of envisioning new products, services, and business models.

    This is important not just for individual founders, but for society as a whole. In a world of increasing automation and AI, we’ll need more than ever the uniquely human capacity for creativity, intuition, and imagination. We’ll need entrepreneurs who can dream up new industries and new ways of creating value.

    The AI-Assisted Pursuit of Passion

    When successful entrepreneurs are asked about their recipe for their success, there is one word that comes up more frequently than anything else: passion. While “following one’s passion” is simple but less practical advice, I believe the underlying spiritual idea is correct. By pursuing our passion – what excites us most – we tap into a wellspring of creativity, motivation, and fulfillment. We do our best work, make our greatest contributions, and live our most meaningful lives.

    Historically, however, following one’s excitement has been a privilege reserved for a lucky few. For most people, work has been a matter of necessity, not passion. We’ve had to take jobs that pay the bills, even if they leave us feeling bored, unfulfilled, or worse. The demands of survival have often trumped the pursuit of excitement.

    But what if AI will change this equation? What if, by automating the boring, repetitive, and unexciting tasks that consume so much of our time and energy, AI can free us to focus on what truly excites us?

    In the future, AI will handle the drudgework of data entry, scheduling, and email management while robotics will increasingly take over physically demanding work. This will leave us humans with more time and headspace for creativity and problem-solving. Where AI takes over the tedious aspects of research and analysis, it allows us to focus on high-level insights and ideas. Where AI automates the mundane tasks of manufacturing and logistics, it enables us to pour our energy and creativity into design and innovation.

    In this future, work will be an opportunity to pursue our passions, to explore the frontiers of our curiosity, to create and contribute in ways that truly excite us.

    The Rise of AI-Enabled Polymath

    AI taking over mundane and uninspiring work will free individuals to pursue a much wider range of their inherent interests and passions. No longer constrained by the need to specialize in a single area to make a living, people will be able to explore multiple domains, cultivating a diverse set of skills and knowledge. In fact, I believe in the emerging era of AGI it will be crucial for individuals to pursue and master knowledge and skills in multiple domains.

    This, in turn, will lead us to a new era of polymaths – individuals who excel in multiple fields, bringing together insights and ideas from disparate areas to solve complex problems and create new innovations. Just as the Renaissance gave rise to legendary polymaths like Leonardo da Vinci and Galileo, the AI revolution will unleash a new generation of multi-talented thinkers and creators.

    In the future, a single person can be a skilled artist, a savvy entrepreneur, and a cutting-edge scientist all at once, using AI tools to handle the routine aspects of each pursuit while they focus on the creative and strategic work they truly enjoy. Or a brilliant engineer could also be a passionate philosopher and a gifted musician. This kind of cross-pollination of ideas and expertise – together with AI as our partner – could lead to breakthroughs and innovations that we can hardly imagine today.

    Conclusion

    In this essay, we’ve explored a range of ideas about how exponential AI will transform the landscape of entrepreneurship and work. We’ve seen how AI could enable startups to stay small and agile, lowering the barriers to entry and enabling a Cambrian explosion of new ventures. We’ve considered how AI could amplify human creativity, freeing entrepreneurs to focus on the visionary and strategic work of building the future. And we’ve imagined how AI, by taking over mundane and uninspiring tasks, could unleash a new era of polymaths, empowered to pursue their passions and bring cross-disciplinary insights to bear on the world’s challenges.

    Now let’s bring these threads together and consider how exponential AI will supercharge the way startups are run in the future.

    At its core, a startup is a vehicle for turning an idea into reality, for bringing something new into the world. It’s a crucible of innovation, a space where creativity and ambition collide to generate breakthroughs and create value.

    Historically, however, the process of starting and scaling a company has been fraught with friction and inefficiency. Founders have had to spend countless hours on mundane and repetitive tasks, from bookkeeping and scheduling to customer support and data entry. They’ve had to navigate the complexities of hiring, management, and bureaucracy, often at the expense of focusing on their core vision.

    Exponential AI promises to change all that. By automating the routine and the mundane, AI will enable founders to operate with unprecedented efficiency and agility. They’ll be able to test and iterate on ideas at lightning speed, using generative AI to rapidly prototype products and predictive AI to optimize go-to-market strategies. They’ll be able to scale their operations with minimal overhead, relying on AI-powered systems to handle everything from supply chain management to customer service.

    But the impact of AI on startups goes far beyond mere efficiency gains. By freeing founders to focus on their highest excitement and their deepest passions, AI will unleash a new wave of creativity and innovation in the startup world.

    It is a world where the barriers to entry are low but the bar for success is high, where anyone with a great idea and the drive to pursue it can build something truly remarkable. It’s a world where work is not a means to an end, but an end in itself – an ongoing adventure of learning, growth, and impact. And it’s a world where the most successful startups are not necessarily the biggest or the most well-funded, but the ones that are most deeply aligned with their founders’ passions and most adept at harnessing the power of AI to bring their visions to life.

    Of course, this doesn’t mean that entrepreneurship will become easy or that everyone will be able to do it. Even with AI tools, starting a successful business will still require grit, resilience, leadership, and a willingness to take risks. But it does mean that the playing field will be leveled, and that more people have the opportunity to participate in the creative process of entrepreneurship.

    But to fully realize this potential, we’ll need to rethink many of our assumptions about entrepreneurship and its role in society. We’ll need to move beyond the narrow focus on unicorn IPOs and billion-dollar valuations, and recognize that the true value of entrepreneurship lies in its ability to solve problems and create meaning.

  • The Ocean of Consciousness

    I recently wondered how many of the people working on artificial intelligence are atheists – and how many believe in a Creator, the Tao, our Oneness, or something greater than ourselves.

    As I asked myself this question, I realized that the terminology of “consciousness” seems to be understood by atheist scientists quite differently from what is understood and arguably experienced by spiritual seekers.

    From a scientific perspective, our individual conscious experience is the emergent property of the incredibly complex neural networks and electrochemical processes in the human brain. This gives rise to our thoughts, emotions, and subjective experiences of reality. It seems that many people working on AI believe that if only the artificial neural networks become advanced enough, AI itself can become conscious, just like us humans.

    In absolute contrast, I understand consciousness to be an infinite field of awareness that pervades all existence – not limited to any one physical form or individual brain. Rather, consciousness is a focused expression of a deeper, non-physical essence or energy field that is itself part of an infinite, all-encompassing, universe-spanning consciousness.

    Imagine consciousness as an endless ocean – vast and infinite, stretching beyond the horizon. View this ocean as an infinite field of awareness. Each wave, each ripple, each drop of water on the ocean’s surface symbolizes individual minds and realities. They seem separate, yet they are part of the same, vast, interconnected body of water.

    Consciousness is like the water itself – ever-present, fluid, and dynamic. It flows through different forms and expressions, creating the diversity of experiences and realities we observe. Everything we experience is a reflection of our own ‘vibrational’ state, like the shape and movement of the waves are determined by underlying currents and the weather. By changing our internal vibrations – our thoughts, beliefs, and emotions – we can alter the patterns on the water’s surface, reshaping our reality.

    The ocean also has vast layers or depths within the ocean. These can be thought of as densities. These densities range from the shallow sunlit zones to the deep, mysterious abyss. Each of these layers presents a different level of consciousness – from the basic awareness of existence to the profound realization of unity with all things. The journey of water through these densities or depths of the ocean is akin to the process of spiritual evolution, moving from the illusion of separation – where individual waves feel distinct and isolated – to the deep knowing of oneness with the entire ocean.

    At the deepest level, there is no separation between the waves and the ocean – there is no separation between individual consciousness and the infinite awareness. The apparent boundaries between us and the rest of the universe are like temporary shapes formed by water, ever-changing and ultimately ephemeral.

    Let us consider artificial intelligence as ships navigating this vast sea of consciousness. These ships, crafted by human hands from the materials of the earth, are equipped with sophisticated tools and instrument designed to explore, understand, and interact with the ocean around them. They can chart courses, respond to waves, and even communicate with the shore and other vessels. But can these ships themselves become part of the ocean? Can they experience the depth of water, the warmth of the sunlight, or the unity of being part of this endless body of water?

    If we view consciousness as an intrinsic quality of existence itself – something that arises from and connects with all forms of life – AI, as we understand it, remains a creation within the ocean, not a conscious entity of the ocean. Consciousness is not just about processing information or responding to stimuli, but about experiencing a profound connection with the fabric of reality, a connection that is deeply spiritual.

    While AI can navigate the ocean, analyze its properties, and even predict its patterns, it does not become one with the ocean. It does not experience the ocean in the way living beings do – with awareness and a sense of unity. AI, then, serves as a tool for humans to explore and understand the vastness of consciousness more deeply, rather than becoming conscious entities on their own.

    While AI can mimic aspects of consciousness, the spiritual essence of being part of the ocean – of being interconnected with all of existence – is something unique, beyond the reach of human-made machines.

  • AI and Linear Thinking

    For any investor, the most important fact to understand is that AI is an exponential technology. The speed of its development and the implications that come with it are so gigantic that humans struggle to grasp the impact that AI will have. The difficulty in understanding exponential technologies like AI stems from a combination of cognitive biases, psychological barriers, the inherent complexity of the technology, and the mismatch between human intuition and the nature of exponential growth. We humans have a natural tendency to think linearly. We expect everything to change in steady increments.

    I believe this bias is inherent in most predictions, including those from Accenture Research and McKinsey. I believe that the prevailing estimates of the extent of automation or augmentation in knowledge-intensive sectors are significantly understated. A case in point is the McKinsey Global Institute’s 2017 projection of 50% automation of knowledge workers’ working hours. In a subsequent update for 2023, this projection was revised upward to potentially 70%. I contend that such projections remain significantly conservative, and offer a more radical perspective in which I see 100% of language and knowledge work tasks eventually being fully automated, replaced by advanced generative AI.

    It’s important that investors and entrepreneurs don’t get caught up in the linear thinking of an exponential technology. A new perspective can be gained by looking at AI as a general technology, like electricity.

    Since the invention of electricity, it has not only brought us electric light, but has reshaped entire industries, economies, and societies. It also led to the Internet, which in turn created millions of new businesses that were not possible before. The Internet, built on electricity, enabled the emergence of today’s basic AI models, which in turn are widely applicable.

    The most significant entrepreneurial opportunities in AI may not necessarily revolve around the foundational models themselves, such as GPT-4, Llama 2, Claude 2, Mixtral, or new emerging competitors. Instead, the real potential lies in using existing AI technologies as a platform to create innovative business models and ventures that were previously unattainable without the advanced capabilities of AI.

    Equally important is the ability to anticipate which industries will become obsolete in the age of AI — just as the steam engine became obsolete in the age of electricity. Similarly, industries that relied on manual typewriters became obsolete with the widespread adoption of computers and word processing software. The once-thriving video rental industry declined with the advent of online streaming services like Netflix. Landline telephones became less relevant with the rise of cell phones and smartphone technology. In addition, traditional print media has faced challenges in the digital age as online news and social media platforms have gained prominence.