Marius Schober

Essays

Long format articles such as essays or longer opinion pieces.

  • Trump: Rewiring Civilization

    Donald Trump’s reelection is not just a political victory—it is the beginning of a seismic realignment of American power. Unshackled by the need for reelection and surrounded by a cadre of contrarian advisors, Trump stands ready to rewrite the rules of domestic governance, global trade, and national security. Not since the mid-20th century has a U.S. presidency promised such a fundamental overhaul of the nation’s operating system.

    This moment introduces a high-variance environment where volatility is the new norm and uncertainty both a risk and an opportunity. Trump’s method turns conventional wisdom on its head: predictability, once prized, is now a vulnerability; unpredictability, a calculated asset. This inversion compels domestic institutions, foreign governments, multinational corporations, and investors to abandon old assumptions and prepare for a new, uncharted era of American leadership.

    Strategic Unpredictability

    In conventional politics, predictability reinforces trust and stabilizes alliances. Trump turns this formula on its head. Borrowing from his business roots, he treats governance like an endless high-stakes negotiation, refusing to be pinned down by familiar rules. Instead of relying on time-honored frameworks—NATO’s ritualistic guarantees, half-century-old trade deals, bureaucratic inertia—Trump embraces a sophisticated combinatorial approach to decision-making. He experiments with countless permutations of strategies and tactics, making his next move virtually impossible to predict.

    This unpredictability, often mistaken for chaos, is calculated. Trump breaks traditions, mixes signals, and never commits fully to a single position. The discomfort this causes among media, diplomats, and policymakers arises from their inability to slot him neatly into known categories. As allies and adversaries scramble to decode shifting signals, they must now renegotiate assumptions and adapt on the fly. Formerly stable trading partners can no longer rely on a static understanding of U.S. policy, and institutions once considered untouchable must re-justify their relevance.

    The benefits for Trump’s agenda can be substantial: unthinkable reforms, renegotiated pacts more favorable to U.S. interests, and revived domestic industries. The risk, however, is perpetual uncertainty—markets can rattle, trust erode, and miscalculations prove costly. Yet by keeping the world off-balance, Trump preserves maximum strategic freedom, forcing every stakeholder to engage on his terms. This approach reveals Trump as a leader who, far from being misguided or simplistic, demonstrates a rare creative intelligence—one that thrives on complexity, defies convention, and redefines the limits of political possibility.

    A Presidency with Succession Plan

    No longer seeking reelection, Trump’s ambitions transcend short-term popularity. He envisions a legacy enduring centuries, a future where his descendants inherit a reshaped America. This shift in time horizon is profound. It emboldens him to attempt structural overhauls that others fear as political suicide. He can endure short-term pain, criticism, and even chaos if he believes it sets a foundation that benefits future generations.

    Rather than governing for one election cycle, Trump is orchestrating a multi-decade realignment aimed at reviving stagnant industries, redrawing global trade patterns, and consolidating a durable political base. Central to this strategy is J.D. Vance, a sharp and versatile leader who will command broad appeal if the administration delivers on its promises. As a policy entrepreneur who blends conservative instincts with selective progressive ideas, his potential appeal across party lines sets him apart from orthodox politicians. If he can claim credit for tangible improvements—such as a resurgent manufacturing corridor in the Midwest—Vance’s path to the presidency in 2028 becomes clearer, ensuring policy stability that stretches well beyond Trump’s final day in office.

    Beyond J.D. Vance, Trump’s succession plan includes other high-potential figures who could easily extend his vision well into the 2030s. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with his unique blend of populist appeal, independent thinking, and a growing base across traditional party lines, emerges as a natural complement to Trump’s coalition. His presence signals a broader ideological realignment, bridging gaps between disillusioned Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Additionally, Trump’s children – particularly Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump – are well positioned to inherit both the political machinery and cultural influence their father has cultivated. Together, this combination of J.D. Vance, RFK Jr., and the Trump family creates a formidable roster of successors, capable of sustaining Trump’s disruptive agenda for 12 years, or even two decades.

    This multi-generational continuity is the most important possibility to internalize. Waiting Trump out is no longer an option. Institutions and foreign governments cannot bank on a swift return to pre-Trump norms. Instead, they must recognize the likelihood of an enduring disruption and recalibration. Again, even if Trump only succeeds in reviving the Rust Belt, it seems likely that the U.S. will spend the coming decade dismantling, digitizing, and rebirthing its institutions, forging a state that sets new efficiency standards and redefines global power.

    Trump x Musk

    In the tense aftermath of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Elon Musk’s swift and unequivocal endorsement stunned the public. Within minutes, his bold show of confidence galvanized millions of hesitant voters, emboldening them to step forward and voice their support.

    Musk went further, warning that if Trump, armed with superior policies, a seasoned team, and lessons from his first term, still failed to defeat a weak Democratic challenger, it would mark America’s last truly meaningful election. While dramatic, this message was less prophecy than critique—an attack on the creeping institutional inertia in Washington. In Musk’s view, the real danger laid not in some North Korean style regime but in the emergence of a system that, like California’s one-party politics, renders elections mere formalities. If entrenched bureaucracy could outlast Trump’s best efforts, democracy would become ritual rather than reality, and the nation’s political destiny would drift beyond the voter’s reach.

    The Musk – Milei Connection

    Elon Musk’s fascination with Argentina’s libertarian president, Javier Milei, adds an unexpected dimension to the Trump-Musk relationship. Milei’s reforms, centered on relentless deregulation and led by a powerful Ministry of Deregulation dismantling barriers at lightning speed, offer a live test bed for the libertarian governance Musk envisions and Trump might embrace. The Argentine experiment—wielded by the sharp intellect of Federico Sturzenegger’s ministry—cuts one to five obstacles a day, shrinking a bloated state into a lean, innovation-ready apparatus.

    This bold agenda resonates strongly with Musk, who has hinted at parallel efforts in the U.S. through his proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Both he and Milei share a taste for smashing outdated frameworks, allowing decentralized markets to flourish and forcing institutions to justify their existence. Milei’s admiration for Trump as a “true warrior” and “viking” cements this ideological triangle. It suggests a cross-pollination of ideas—Milei’s ruthless pruning of state power, Musk’s efficiency crusade, and Trump’s willingness to rewrite the rulebook—potentially softening Trump’s reliance on tariffs and energizing his push for structural reform.

    An Alliance of Consequence

    Elon Musk’s transition from outside visionary to an influential policymaker is more than a new addition to Trump’s arsenal—it’s a force multiplier. Musk’s wide-angle, multi-planetary perspective infuses fresh intellectual rigor into a governance style defined by volatility, turning unpredictable impulses into purposeful experimentation. But his influence no longer stands alone. The Milei effect now permeates these corridors of power, seeding radical ideas about deregulation and streamlined government that are not theoretical but field-tested in Argentina’s bold experiment.

    With Milei’s blueprint as a proof of concept, Musk and Trump find tangible models for dismantling entrenched bureaucracies. Instead of grappling with intangible theories, they can point to real results—economic barriers torn down at a breakneck pace, the state machinery pared back without collapsing the social fabric. Argentina’s evidence emboldens Musk’s push for sweeping reforms—faster permitting, leaner agencies, a dynamic redefinition of public service—and helps Trump justify riskier moves that traditional politics once deemed unthinkable.

    The result is not mere chaos, but a calculated recalibration. As Musk invests time shaping innovation policies and operational efficiencies, he draws on lessons from Milei’s successes to justify even bolder undertakings. These new frameworks, influenced by both Musk’s contrarian brilliance and Milei’s radical pragmatism, feed back into Trump’s governance style. Each actor accelerates the others, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of disruption and renewal.

    The result: a triad of global disruptors—Trump, Musk, Milei—whose ideological synergy could reshape how governments function and markets evolve. Argentina’s libertarian revolution provides a clarifying lens into what future American reforms might look like: radical, data-driven, and unapologetically free-market, with global ripples challenging stagnation wherever it takes root.

    The DOGE Experiment

    The synergy between Trump, Musk, and the lessons drawn from abroad now converges within the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Freed from traditional templates, DOGE seeks to simplify tax codes, automate administrative procedures, and use technology to slash bureaucratic dead weight at breakneck speed.

    Imagine the U.S. government as an advanced operating system: blockchain-based audits instead of paper trails; AI-driven licensing to eliminate red tape; simpler, unified tax codes; algorithms to streamline procurement. DOGE aims for order-of-magnitude improvements in efficiency, cutting decades of accumulated friction.

    The United States is no fragile backwater; its immense global influence and deeply entrenched institutions mean that any disruption reverberates across markets, alliances, and long-standing treaties. As the world’s largest economy and a cornerstone of geopolitical stability, the U.S. cannot afford large-scale missteps. Yet the DOGE initiative adopts a startup mentality—rapid iteration and high-stakes trial and error. The potential upside is transformative: streamlined public services, productivity-boosting incentives, and a leaner, more efficient government. The risk, however, is equally profound. Removing critical structural supports without care could destabilize the system, triggering unintended and potentially catastrophic consequences.

    This tension underscores the importance of the existing talent housed within the U.S. bureaucracy. Unlike Argentina’s historically disorganized public sectors, Washington’s institutional apparatus holds deep reservoirs of domain expertise—i.e. in foreign affairs. The DOGE mandate is to harness this knowledge, not extinguish it. Musk’s first-principles logic demands that old frameworks pass rigorous stress tests: if a structure can’t be justified, it goes. But he must also ensure valuable specialists remain engaged, transforming inertial complexity into dynamic competence.

    The outcome is radical uncertainty. Markets should expect breakneck policy pivots, unconventional alliances, and sudden regulatory changes. The winners will be those who anticipate Musk’s logic: simplify processes, reduce friction, solve root problems, and think big. Those who rely on slow-moving bureaucracies and incrementalism may find themselves outpaced.

    Tax Reforms: Toward Radical Simplification

    Trump’s envisioned tax overhaul—steeped in campaign promises of cuts, credits, and targeted relief—now faces a deeper metamorphosis under the influence of Elon Musk’s DOGE. While conventional analysis fixates on marginal rates and brackets, Musk approaches taxation like a first-principles engineering problem, stripping away centuries of incremental complexity.

    This perspective challenges the old narrative. Instead of parsing line items—tips, overtime, tariffs—Musk demands a wholesale reset: a flattened structure free of intricate carve-outs and sector-specific giveaways. Such radical simplification acknowledges a central truth: complexity breeds corruption, invites rent-seeking, and rewards the nimble few at the expense of the many. If America’s fractal tax code now favors professional tax strategists and corporate accountants fluent in loopholes, Musk wants a system comprehensible to any citizen with a smartphone.

    The most likely outcome? A streamlined tax regime that reduces friction across the entire economy. Imagine minimal categories of income, uniform treatment of earnings, and a largely automated compliance process. Smart contracts and digital ledgers could replace annual filings with instantaneous settlements, neutering the bureaucratic machinery that has grown around tax enforcement. These changes would make it harder for both corporations and governments to hide inefficiencies—an outcome that resonates with Trump’s broader ambition to strip away outdated infrastructure.

    Yet this simplicity harbors profound implications. A truly flat, transparent system would expose the real winners and losers of American policy choices. If protectionism endures, tariffs would stand naked as a parallel tax, visible in real time rather than obfuscated by a maze of deductions and rebates. Politicians, accustomed to cloaking redistribution in complexity, might find it harder to pass off subtle forms of patronage as populism. In essence, a maximally simplified tax code removes the camouflage that has protected vested interests for decades.

    Of course, simplicity will backfire if introduced bluntly. Entire industries, from tax advisory firms to lobbyists, depend on complexity’s shelter. Abruptly leveling the landscape will produce short-term chaos as entrenched players scramble for new footing. Moreover, while Musk’s logic-driven approach promises elegance, reality may resist tidy solutions. Certain incentives—promoting green energy or encouraging domestic manufacturing—might still demand nuance. But the starting point is no longer incremental tinkering; it’s a clean slate, forcing every tax provision to justify its existence from zero.

    Tariffs: Negotiation Leverage

    Once dismissed by orthodox economists as blunt and inefficient, tariffs now stand at the center of Trump’s global playbook—not as a fixed doctrine, but as a tactical lever. Free market idealists champion free trade as the route to optimal outcomes, yet real-world markets rarely start on equal footing. Nations tilt the field with subsidies, currency manipulation, and hidden regulatory hurdles. In such an environment, tariffs become a strategic scalpel that can reset terms, enforce reciprocity, and pry open previously closed markets.

    For Trump, a sweeping 60% duty on Chinese imports is no final blueprint—it’s an opening offer designed to shock the system. The message: negotiate, adjust, or pay the price. This unpredictability unsettles long-standing assumptions. Allies and adversaries alike must recalibrate, as stable supply chains give way to fluid production networks in Vietnam, India, or Mexico. If done well, these shifts yield a more balanced distribution of manufacturing and reduce America’s vulnerabilities to single-source suppliers. In this sense, tariffs can foster resilience and diversification, mitigating the geopolitical choke points that free trade theory never fully acknowledged.

    Yet these weapons must be wielded with surgical precision. Mishandled tariffs risk alienating key partners, rattling markets, and sparking inflation. They can morph into a hidden tax on consumers, undermining the very domestic revitalization they promise. Elon Musk’s perspective offers a cautionary note: restructuring supply chains is no quick fix. Shifting factories and retraining workers takes years. Abrupt, across-the-board tariffs can fracture critical production systems overnight. Prudence suggests a phased approach, signaling intentions early, allowing industries time to adapt, and using threats as negotiation chips rather than sledgehammers.

    Trump’s coalition of advisors—visionaries like Musk, pragmatists like Howard Lutnick—emphasizes targeted action over blunt force. Lutnick proposes a formulaic approach: match a trading partner’s tariffs, impose them only where the U.S. can compete, and use them as a bargaining chip rather than an end state. Paired with Musk’s operational realism, this strategy tempers political showmanship with economic feasibility.

    Instead of uniform duties, expect a tiered system: minimal tariffs for allies who reciprocate, moderate rates for neutral partners, and punishing levies for strategic rivals until fair terms emerge.

    Under this lens, tariffs become a negotiating language—a means of translating America’s industrial resurgence into concrete policy outcomes. Politically, these moves resonate with the Rust Belt and other regions hungry for manufacturing revivals. Economically, they remain high-risk experiments, vulnerable to miscalculation. But the goal is not permanent protectionism; it’s to restore equilibrium. If tariffs coax other nations toward true free trade—removing their own barriers—they ultimately may lead to a more open global system than before.

    In short, Trump’s tariff agenda is less about ideology and more about leverage. Done right, tariffs serve as corrective scalpel, not crude club—enforcing fairness where laissez-faire rhetoric has failed. In a world of asymmetric rules and systemic imbalances, this may be the stark, contrarian truth: without the threat of tariffs, free trade’s promised harmony remains a chimera.

    Renegotiating the World

    For over seven decades, America’s alliances and institutions have rested on the scaffolding erected in the aftermath of the Second World War. NATO, Bretton Woods, the UN—these once-bold innovations now feel like aging load-bearing beams creaking under their own weight. They have delivered stability and prosperity, but also complacency and moral hazard. As the world fragments into multipolar tension—Tehran, Moscow, Kiev, Jerusalem, Taiwan, India-Pakistan—Donald Trump’s second term thrusts these pillars into a stress test. His approach is simple yet radical: prove your worth or face demolition.

    This contrarian posture rattles allies accustomed to American predictability. For decades, Europe has invested minimally in its own defense under the U.S. umbrella. Now, NATO members must confront the possibility that American guarantees are no longer unconditional. The same logic extends to trade blocs, security treaties, and bilateral pacts formed in a bygone era. By challenging their continued relevance, Trump invites allies and adversaries alike to recalibrate. In this environment, alliances cease to be moral endowments and become contingent bargains that must demonstrate current strategic value.

    This renegotiation is risky. The global order no longer pivots neatly around a stable U.S.-Soviet axis, nor is it the unipolar moment of the 1990s. Today’s order is an uneven chessboard of nuclear weapons, resource competition, and ideological fragmentation. Overturning familiar architectures could yield unexpected cascades. Pushing NATO partners to shoulder more responsibility might strengthen the alliance—or fracture it. Pressuring countries reliant on U.S. market access may secure fairer deals—or encourage them to form new blocs that exclude Washington. Each move is a high-stakes bet, where skillful statecraft could produce more honest and balanced arrangements or trigger crises that even superpowers struggle to contain.

    But from Trump’s vantage point, the old frameworks no longer align with American interests. They’re relics of a unique historical anomaly—the post-1945 order—when America’s unmatched might and nuclear stalemate enforced a global architecture. That anomaly, he argues, is over. In an age where strategic rivals like China and Russia test the boundaries with greater subtlety, clinging to outdated agreements is not strategy but inertia.

    Critics warn that eroding trust and predictability drains American soft power, making it harder to rally allies in crises like pandemics or climate shocks. True enough, unpredictability can sabotage diplomacy. But predictability can also foster free-riding and entrench dysfunction. Trump’s gamble is that by shaking old alliances to their core, he can force genuine renewal. Perhaps NATO will finally modernize and balance its burden-sharing. Perhaps trade compacts will shed legacy constraints and become truly reciprocal.

    The outcome is uncertain. Renegotiating the world order in real time risks overreach and unintended consequences. Yet standing pat means risking slow decline under ossified structures that no longer serve American interests or global stability. In a world of rising stakes and diminished certainties, Trump’s challenge to the old order represents a radical, contrarian attempt to forge a more honest equilibrium—one in which every alliance, every treaty, and every institution must earn its keep.

    The Miscalculation Threat

    Modern leaders, Trump included, have never personally witnessed the horrors of full-scale war. They grew up in an era defined by contained conflicts, drone strikes, and managed escalations rather than battles that raze cities and reorder civilizations. Without scars from industrial-scale bloodshed, they treat war as a toolkit, negotiable and bounded—a game where one can bluff, push, and recalibrate at will.

    This war amnesia skews judgment. Absent the visceral memory of trenches or mushroom clouds, today’s statesmen and strategists assume that rational actors will always stop short of catastrophe. But true rationality erodes when survival is at stake. Corner a nuclear-armed power—Russia over Ukraine, China over Taiwan—and the logic of controlled brinkmanship can unravel. The difference between a shrewd gamble and a disastrous misread shrinks to a razor’s edge.

    Trump’s unpredictability, in theory, can shatter diplomatic inertia and open unprecedented avenues for deal-making. Yet the same volatility can push adversaries beyond their comfort zones. Misread signals and cultural blind spots can amplify misunderstandings. In a world of intertwined alliances and nuclear tripwires, the room for error narrows to nothing. A single miscalculation could cascade toward irreversible chaos.

    Compounding the problem is a distorted concept of strength. Without the crucible of large-scale war, leaders conflate bluster with courage. Posturing and chest-thumping replace the tempered resolve forged in battle. This masculinity crisis encourages leaders to prove their mettle through brinkmanship, pushing strategic tensions to the brink under the assumption that someone else will blink first.

    Yet history warns us. Before World War I, European leaders believed war would be short and decisive. They lacked the mental model for industrial slaughter. The result was unimaginable carnage. Today’s faith in rational deterrence and limited warfare is equally untested against nuclear thresholds. The risk: assuming that what has never happened cannot happen—until it does.

    For investors and policymakers, these tail risks matter. Even a tiny probability of nuclear exchange dwarfs conventional cost-benefit calculations. Markets often discount extreme events, but the logic here fails: one nuclear flash, and investment theses vanish. Realist scenario planning must treat the unthinkable as possible, building robust hedges and diplomatic channels that anticipate irrational moves.

    Leaders must confront the fragility behind their confident theories. They can run hard-nosed simulation exercises exposing the realities of nuclear war, engage historians for depth, and deliberately cultivate humility. The aim: to ensure that strategic unpredictability—useful for realigning outdated frameworks—is anchored by a genuine appreciation for the catastrophic potential of miscalculation.

    The stakes transcend any single presidency. Trump’s style highlights an underlying vulnerability in the global order: the illusion that every escalation can be managed. Without conscious effort to re-inject war’s existential reality into policymaking, we risk turning bravado and guesswork into the architects of our undoing.

    An American Renaissance

    Amid volatility, uncertainty, and the rattling of old foundations, the United States finds open ground for reinvention—fertile space where scientific audacity, inventive genius, and fearless exploration can flourish without constraint. Freed from the constraints of incrementalism, the United States can embrace the role of a frontier civilization once again: a nation unafraid to ask audacious questions, challenge sacred doctrines, and test the limits of the possible.

    For decades, America’s once-thriving innovation engine has stalled, suffocated by excessive regulation, rigid academic dogmas, and bureaucratic inertia. Critical fields—from theoretical physics to biotechnology—have languished behind walls of entrenched interests and outdated paradigms. Now, with Trump’s second term shaking the foundations of the status quo and Elon Musk’s contrarian vision gaining traction, the United States faces a rare chance to reignite its pioneering spirit. Instead of tinkering at the margins, Trump and his team propose far-reaching reforms: radically simplified tax codes, streamlined regulations, and reimagined immigration policies designed to attract the brightest global talent and unleash their creative potential.

    This intellectual and cultural thaw reverberates through the sciences. The same nation that once sent men to the Moon now contemplates multi-planetary homesteading. If the old gatekeepers who have stalled theoretical physics for half a century can be bypassed, research into next-generation propulsion, dark chemistries, and new fundamental frameworks beyond the standard model can finally flourish. The tyranny of stagnant string theory, the deep entrenchment of cautious committees, and the decades of intellectual ossification may give way to what some call “cowboy science”: a return to risk-taking, intuition-led breakthroughs, and the heroic ethos of individual genius.

    As these reformist energies spread, the U.S. can leverage a more fluid, reciprocal global trading landscape. Realigned alliances and supply chains engineered for resilience—not just cost-minimization—create fertile conditions for deep-tech ventures, advanced AI labs, and next-generation energy systems. Investors, entrepreneurs, and scientists will gravitate toward America’s rejuvenated ecosystem, drawn by the promise of intellectual freedom and the exhilarating possibility of rewriting fundamental laws of physics. Under these conditions, even concepts dismissed as far-fetched—interstellar travel, room-temperature superconductors, and quantum computing at scale—begin to feel tangible rather than utopian.

    Culturally, a merit-driven ethos replaces hollow credentialism. With intellectual courage in fashion and bold ideas encouraged rather than stifled, the private and public sectors unite in a grand experiment of renewal. The old narrative that the 20th century’s greatest leaps cannot be repeated or surpassed is discarded. Instead, the horizon expands: the stars become destinations, the atom a playground, and the genome a toolkit.

    Of course, nothing guarantees success. The same high-variance environment that enables breakthroughs also courts failure. But the alternative—endless stagnation under rigid orthodoxies—is far less appealing. Risk and reward remain inseparable. Yet if America seizes this rare moment of disruption, the outcome could be a cultural and scientific flourishing that defines the 21st century. The world would witness an America not just rearranging old furniture but remodeling the entire house of knowledge and capability.

    My Perspective

    Embrace the uncertainty. Legacy frameworks, linear forecasts, and predictable policy arcs disintegrate before our eyes. In this new environment, strategic thinking must center on asymmetry, adaptability, and an appetite for chaos. The stable handrails of the past—fossilized alliances, orderly trade pacts, incremental reforms—no longer guide us. Instead, we confront a world where each assumption must be retested, each relationship retooled.

    Short-term, don’t be fooled by today’s optimism. A global recession in 2025 looks increasingly plausible. Just as radical tariff policies and gutting government agencies shake domestic supply chains, weakened global demand may trigger market shocks.

    I expect immediate disappointment in the headlines: over-leveraged sectors are at risk, euphoria is unsustainable, and cracks beneath Bidenomics’ veneer are about to surface. Yet in this churn also lies profound opportunity. High-variance environments punish rigidity and stagnation, while rewarding those who sense the underlying logic: volatility can be harnessed, not merely weathered. Consider three critical asymmetries shaping the investment and business landscape:

    1. Bidenomics Masked Fragility

    Beneath surface-level confidence, America’s economic foundations have softened. Over 60% of recent jobs growth is pinned to government expansion, residual pandemic adjustments, and immigration—rather than genuine private-sector dynamism. Key signals such as spiking credit rejection rates and record-high consumer credit APRs (averaging 23.4%) expose deep vulnerabilities.

    My Perspective: Be careful and consider shorting sectors drunk on euphoria and leverage. Hedge through defensive allocations in utilities, select commodities, and volatility instruments. Expect the market’s reality-check to be swift and severe.

    2. Trump’s Shock Therapy

    Trump’s proposed moves – >60% tariffs on Chinese imports, mass deportations, a dramatic agency cull – risk near-term upheaval. Inflation may flare as re-shored supply chains struggle with labor gaps and capacity constraints. Yet these same policies could, over time, liberate America’s productive energy. Leaner agencies, streamlined regulations, and targeted immigration reforms might unleash a “productivity renaissance.”

    My Perspective: As the tariff storm gathers, go long on domestic industrial plays, automation tech, and logistics hubs that stand to benefit from re-shoring. Short inflation-sensitive assets and prepare for a recessionary downdraft. Hedge with precious metals, critical commodities, and volatility products. Meanwhile, larger positions in frontier technologies poised to flourish in a liberated innovation environment.

    3. The Geopolitical Pivot: The Dollar and BRICS

    China’s ascendancy as the dominant trade partner for over 120 nations, along with BRICS’ rising economic heft, indicates a shifting global gravity. Mounting U.S. refinancing needs and reduced foreign appetite for Treasuries challenge American financial stability. Yet, the U.S. retains unmatched capital markets and remains the ultimate safe haven in moments of panic. Trump’s readiness to deploy financial sanctions and trade barriers could paradoxically reinforce dollar dominance.

    My Perspective: Diversify currency exposure. Maintain core holdings in dollar-denominated assets but add hedges: gold, Bitcoin, rare-earth ETFs, and neutral currencies like the Swiss franc (CHF) or Singapore dollar (SGD).

    Conclusion: Engaging with the New Parameters

    We have entered a period that defies simple narratives. Trump’s reelection announces to the world: comfortable equilibrium is over. His brand of strategic unpredictability invites us to reimagine what American power, governance, and global influence can be. However, the end of safe assumptions means the start of dynamic possibilities.

    While the near-term disruptions will test even the most resilient systems, the long-term vision is undeniably bright for those who play the horizon. A renaissance of innovation, deep-tech breakthroughs, and industrial re-shoring is not only plausible but increasingly probable as legacy constraints fall away.

    A revitalized America, unafraid to challenge stagnation, could emerge as a global leader in space exploration, advanced physics, AI, and frontier sciences. Trump’s recalibration provides the foundation for a leaner, more dynamic economy capable of driving exponential progress.

    I believe: for investors, entrepreneurs, and visionaries, this is the time to look beyond the turbulence and focus on the extraordinary opportunities waiting on the other side of disruption.

    Investment Guidance

    Identifying Signals and Triggers

    • Short-Term (< 12 Months):
      • Prioritize Liquidity & Intelligence: Maintain higher cash reserves and invest in geopolitical risk analysis and scenario modeling. Deploy specialized teams or AI-driven tools to monitor trade policy changes, alliance realignments, and tariff announcements in near-real time.
      • Trade Shock Indicators: Watch for a surge in container freight rates or abrupt commodity price spikes as tariffs hit. When the Baltic Dry Index or forward freight agreements jump unexpectedly, it’s a sell signal for overly exposed consumer goods equities and a prompt to rotate into logistics-tech and North American manufacturing automation.
      • Sovereign Debt & Currency Pressure: Keep a close eye on U.S. Treasury auctions. If foreign participation dips below historical averages by more than 20%, prepare to adjust currency hedges. Add allocations to “safe haven” currencies (CHF, SGD), selected gold or rare-earth ETFs, and volatility indices. Reduce reliance on sectors heavily tied to stable policy (e.g., heavily subsidized industries) and increase optionality in energy metals and critical supply chain components.
    • Medium-Term (2–3 Years):
      • Innovation Inflection Points: Direct capital into exponential technologies and applied sciences; advanced materials, quantum computing, biotech, and AI-driven compliance tools. As bureaucratic complexity shrinks, these sectors stand to benefit outstandingly from faster innovation cycles and greater capital efficiency. A spike in private venture rounds in fields such as advanced materials or ultra-capacitor energy storage signals imminent ecosystem tipping points.
      • Geographical Differentiation: Identify markets that handle uncertainty well—e.g., countries with robust legal systems, flexible labor markets, and strong digital infrastructure. These places can serve as operational hubs from which you can rapidly scale or contract as global policies shift.
      • Regulatory Overhauls: Monitor legislative dockets. If immigration reforms fast-track visas for STEM PhDs and if R&D tax credits deepen annually, expect a 2–3 year lag before the next wave of intellectual capital floods U.S. labs. Increase exposure to biotech and quantum computing startups shortly after such reforms pass.
    • Long-Term (5+ Years):
      • Global Power Reorder: If emerging markets, spurred by U.S. unpredictability, coalesce around alternative trade blocs that stabilize after 5+ years, that’s your cue. Prepare for a world of modular alliances. Align long-horizon infrastructure bets with these new power centers.

    Scenario-Based Policy and Investments

    • “China Retaliation” Scenario: As soon Beijing imposes further capital controls and technology export bans, pivot quickly:
      • Reduce exposure to companies dependent on Chinese rare-earths.
      • Expand positions in U.S. rare-earth suppliers and recycling tech (long specialized recycling firms).
      • Initiate currency hedges: Increase gold allocation, add JPY or CHF positions.
    • “Nuclear Brinkmanship” Scenario: Early indicators: intensified troop movements, erratic diplomatic communications:
      • Increase cyber-insurance and cybersecurity equity holdings as cyber-warfare risks peak.
      • Secure put options on major indices; a 15–20% market drop in a flash-crisis scenario can be mitigated by well-structured options positions.
      • Reassess treasury holdings and ensure a diversified emergency liquidity plan—short-duration U.S. debt, gold, and stablecoins backed by reputable custodians.

    Positioning for the Innovation Renaissance

    • Initiate a strategic allocation into venture funds, selected stocks, and indexes focusing on deep tech; quantum sensors, quantum-safe encryption, next-gen propulsion (for aerospace), and synthetic biology platforms.
    • Monitor and partner with universities and national labs. The moment immigration policies simplify STEM recruitment, double down on early-stage biotech and materials R&D firms that secure top-tier postdoctoral talent.

    Embrace a Layered Risk Architecture

    Create a layered defense:

    • Core stable assets (30–40%)
    • Growth equities and frontier tech (10–20%)
    • Defensive hedges in commodities, currencies, and volatility instruments (5–10%)
    • Agile, tactical allocations that adjust quarterly based on policy signals (remainder)

    Cultural and Organizational Adaptation

    In your firm and institution:

    • Launch scenario planning committees that simulate tariff impacts, alliance breakdowns, or regulatory leaps.
    • Recruit analysts with backgrounds in geopolitics, physics, and biotech—do not rely on MBAs and economists.
    • Encourage experimentation within your decision-making processes—pilot new portfolio strategies on a small scale before scaling up.

    For Non-U.S. Founders & Foreign Firms:

    • Incorporate in the U.S. and use reputable U.S. startup accelerators and venture networks to navigate evolving immigration policies and establish a strong launchpad.
    • Focus on mid-tier American cities seeking innovation and talent inflows, where streamlined approvals and incentives provide a foothold.
    • Build solutions that complement, stabilize, or enhance U.S.-based production and logistics systems, emphasizing resilience and cost-effectiveness.
    • Offer platforms or products that facilitate seamless cross-border transactions, digital collaboration, or remote operations as global markets rewire.

  • The Sovereign AI Startup

    In the summer of 1995, Netscape went public, igniting the dot-com boom and ushering in the Internet age. That moment marked a fundamental shift in how businesses were built and run. Today, we are on the cusp of an equally transformative moment: the dawn of the AI era.

    Imagine a world where a startup founder wakes up, grabs a coffee, and sits down not with a co-founder or a team of bleary-eyed developers, but with an AI. This AI isn’t just a tool or an assistant; it’s a full-fledged partner in the entrepreneurial journey. It helps generate and validate business ideas, build and manage teams, develop products, and make strategic decisions in real time. All while keeping the company small, agile, and fiercely focused on its mission.

    In this essay, inspired by this Tweet from Paul Graham, we’ll explore how exponential AI – artificial intelligence that is rapidly increasing in power and capability – will fundamentally transform the way startups operate. We’ll challenge the long-held belief that successful companies must inevitably become large. Instead, we’ll examine how AI might enable a new breed of startup: the Sovereign AI Startup.

    These Sovereign AI Startups will stay small by design, leveraging AI to achieve outsized impact with minimal headcount. They’ll operate with unprecedented efficiency and agility, free from the bureaucratic bloat that typically comes with growth. Most importantly, they’ll empower founders to focus on what truly matters: the vision, the strategy, and the relentless pursuit of creating something new and valuable in the world.

    But to understand why this shift is so revolutionary, we first need to grapple with a counterintuitive truth: companies tend to get worse as they get bigger. I call this The Size Theory of Company Decay. By examining why this happens, we’ll see how AI offers a potential cure for this seemingly inevitable decline.

    We’ll then explore how AI will reshape every aspect of the entrepreneurial process, from ideation to execution, from team-building to go-to-market strategies. We’ll look at a real-world example of a company that has achieved remarkable results with a small core team, and imagine how AI could supercharge these approaches.

    Along the way, we’ll consider the broader implications of this shift. How will it change the nature of work and creativity? Will it democratize entrepreneurship, allowing underdogs from anywhere in the world to compete on a global stage? And what new legal and regulatory frameworks will we need to support these AI-native companies?

    But first, let’s take a step back and understand a common misconception: that successful startups must get big, why we believe that, and how AI will change it.

    The Size Theory of Company Decay

    The idea that successful startups must grow into large companies is deeply ingrained in our entrepreneurial culture. We’ve been conditioned to equate success with scale – more employees, more offices, more layers of management. This belief stems from a pre-digital, pre-AI era when growth often did require a proportional increase in human resources. But it’s a model that’s showing its age.

    Consider the traditional growth trajectory: a startup begins with a small, scrappy team. As it gains traction, it hires more people to handle increased demand, expand into new markets, or develop new products. Before long, what started as a lean, agile startup becomes a sprawling organization with hundreds or thousands of employees. Along the way, it often loses the very qualities that made it successful in the first place – speed, flexibility, and a laser focus on solving customer problems. This is what I call company decay.

    At the heart of company decay lies a paradox: the very things that drive a startup’s initial success become the seeds of its eventual decline. It’s as if success itself carries within it the DNA of failure. But why?

    Think of a startup as a finely tuned machine, where every part knows its function and works in perfect harmony with the others. Now imagine that machine growing larger and more complex with each passing day. What happens?

    First, communication breaks down. In a small startup, information flows freely. Everyone knows what everyone else is doing. But as the company grows, the number of potential communication channels explodes exponentially. Suddenly, you need meetings to plan other meetings. Information gets stuck in departmental silos. The machine starts to sputter.

    Then there’s the cultural shift. In the early days, everyone is a true believer, united by a shared mission to change the world. But as you add more people, that sense of purpose gets diluted. New hires are there for a job, not a crusade. The machine loses its soul.

    This cultural erosion bleeds into the company’s vision. Peter Thiel calls it the loss of “definite optimism.” The bold question of “How can we change the world?” gets buried under layers of management and short-term thinking. It morphs into “How can we protect what we have?” The machine forgets why it was built in the first place.

    As if these internal changes weren’t enough, external pressures mount. Public companies face relentless pressure to meet quarterly targets. Long-term investments in innovation are sacrificed on the altar of short-term gains. The fear of a stock price drop drives decisions that are poison to the company’s long-term health.

    But perhaps the most insidious change is in decision-making. In a small startup, decisions are made quickly by people close to the problem. In a large company, decision-making becomes a bureaucratic nightmare. No one wants to make a tough call for fear of repercussions. Responsibility becomes so diffuse that no one feels truly accountable. The machine grinds to a halt.

    All of these factors – and many more – compound each other, creating a vicious cycle of inefficiency and stagnation. It’s as if there’s an invisible force pulling successful companies towards mediocrity, much like how gravity inevitably pulls objects back to earth.

    How bad can it be?

    Firing 12 Floors

    Carl Icahn once told a hilarious story of him acquiring a company called ACF Industries in the early 1980s. Upon taking control, he visited their New York office, which occupied 12 floors of prime real estate. As he tried to understand what each floor did, he lost himself in a miracle of bureaucracy and unclear job functions. Despite spending days going from floor to floor, Icahn couldn’t figure out what these people actually did for the company.

    Frustrated, Icahn decided to visit the company’s manufacturing operation in St. Louis. There, he met with Joe, the head of operations, who gave him a clear picture of how the business actually worked. When Icahn asked Joe how many of the New York office staff he needed to support his operation, Joe responded: “minus 30”.

    Unsure what to do, Icahn paid a couple of consultants $250,000 to find out what these people in New York actually do. Three weeks later, the consultants came back with hundreds of pages and the blunt answer: “we don’t know what they do either.”

    Icahn ended up firing everyone in the New York office – all 12 floors. The company continued to operate without a hitch. Icahn said that he never received a single complaint or inquiry – it was as if those 12 floors of people never existed.

    This story sounds so ridiculous (I highly recommend watching the 8.5 minute video) that it raises a valid question for discussion: Even without AI – how many employees in large companies are actually productive and necessary for the core operations of the business?

    As companies grow, particularly during periods of hyper-growth fueled by large capital infusions, they often accumulate layers of middle management, support staff, and specialized roles that may not directly contribute to the bottom line. The pressure to allocate capital quickly can lead to hasty hiring decisions and the creation of positions that look good on paper but add little real value. It’s easy to justify each hire individually, but harder to step back and question whether the overall organizational structure is truly optimal. 

    I assume that leaders often know that their organizations have become bloated, but they delay taking action due to the psychological toll of firing employees. Firing is extremely difficult, both for those making the decision and for those losing their jobs. This emotional barrier can lead companies to maintain inefficient structures far longer than is economically justified, fooling themselves into believing that all roles are necessary.

    Carl Icahn’s story of firing 12 floors of employees without any noticeable impact on the company’s operations illustrates how inefficient large organizations can become. But it is not limited to industrial corporations.

    At its peak, WeWork had over 12,500 employees, Uber over 32,000 employees – we have to wonder: how many of these people are truly essential to the core business?

    It’s easy to fall into the trap of equating headcount with productivity or success. The job of a founder and executive is not to build empires of employees, but to lead and solve problems efficiently. Sometimes, that means taking a hard look at your organization and asking yourself: do I really need all these 12 floors?

    Elon Musk, like Carl Icahn, not only asked this question as he acquired Twitter (now X) – he acted. When Elon Musk acquired the company in 2022, it had over 7,500 employees. In a move that shocked many, he promptly laid off about 80% of the workforce, leaving the company with roughly 1,500 employees.

    In an interview with WSJ, Elon Musk said that Twitter had “a lot of people doing things that didn’t seem to have a lot of value,” and that “Twitter was in a situation where you’d have a meeting of 10 people and one person with an accelerator and nine with a set of brakes, so you didn’t go very far.”

    He didn’t think that this was unique to Twitter and continued that other big tech companies could cut jobs without impacting productivity.

    Conventional wisdom suggested that such a drastic reduction would cripple the platform’s ability to function, let alone innovate. Yet – just as ACF Industries – X has not only continued to operate but has arguably accelerated its pace of innovation. This suggests that a significant portion of Twitter’s previous workforce may have been redundant or focused on non-essential tasks.

    The Example of Telegram

    The bloat we see in companies like Twitter, Uber, and WeWork isn’t just a problem for established tech giants. More importantly is it a cautionary tale for every startup founder. These companies, once lean and agile, fell into the trap of equating headcount growth with progress. But what if the next generation of startups can avoid this fate entirely?

    Imagine a startup that can scale to serve millions of users without the historical explosion in headcount. This isn’t science fiction. Telegram is already a prime example of how a small core team of 60 team members – of which 30 are engineers – can serve more than 900 monthly users.

    In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Pavel Durov, Telegram’s founder, described in greater detail how he built Telegram by combining a clear vision with ruthless efficiency.

    Pavel Durov has crafted an organizational structure so lean it borders on ascetic. He’s the sole director, equity holder, and product manager, working directly with every engineer and designer. There’s no HR department; instead, Durov recruits through coding contests, identifying top talent through performance rather than resumes. This isn’t just cost-cutting; it’s a fundamental rethinking of how a tech company can operate. Telegram has never run an ad, yet it’s challenging giants like WhatsApp and WeChat.

    Durov hasn’t just built a messaging app; he’s created a blueprint for how startups can scale to enormous impact with minimal headcount. In doing so, he’s not just saving on salaries; he’s eliminating the communication overhead and bureaucratic friction that leads to the decay most companies experience as they grow.

    I believe Telegram isn’t an anomaly – it is a glimpse into the future of what companies can achieve when they reject conventional wisdom about organizational structure and embrace radical efficiency. And by bringing AI into the equation, I believe this is the near future of entrepreneurship.

    Telegram is a great example that companies don’t have to get big after all. Yet, how small is big enough?

    Teams Smaller Than Dunbar’s Number

    Robin Dunbar, a British anthropologist, suggests that the conscious decision to stay small has real advantages. In his first paper, “Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates,” Dunbar proposed that humans can comfortably maintain only about 150 stable relationships. This limit, known as Dunbar’s Number, is becoming fascinatingly relevant to startups, especially as AI begins to enable startups to operate extremely efficiently with fewer than 150 employees.

    Scientifically, Dunbar’s number makes sense. The neocortex, the part of the brain responsible for conscious thought and language, can only process so much social information. Beyond 150 relationships, we struggle to keep track of the complex web of who knows whom and how they relate. In a startup, where relationships and culture are paramount, exceeding this number can lead to breakdowns in communication and cohesion – leading to company decay.

    Psychologically, smaller teams are more conducive to trust and intimacy. With fewer people, it’s easier to understand each person’s strengths, weaknesses, and quirks. This understanding creates psychological safety – the confidence that you can take risks and be vulnerable without fear of embarrassment or retribution. Psychological safety is critical for the kind of innovative, out-of-the-box thinking that startups need to thrive.

    Philosophically, too, there’s an elegance to the idea of a small, tight-knit team taking on Goliath challenges. It’s the story of David and Goliath, the rebel against the empire. Small teams can be more agile, more adaptable, more resilient. They can make decisions quickly without getting bogged down in bureaucracy. You can pivot on a dime when circumstances change.

    Startups that stay below Dunbar’s number indefinitely – can avoid company decay. But how can a small team hope to compete with the resources and scale of a large corporation?

    The Era of Sovereign AI Startups

    The book The Sovereign Individual predicted that the information revolution would empower individuals over institutions. Now, 27 years after it was first published, I believe this trend is accelerating, especially in entrepreneurship. Just as the personal computer and the internet gave rise to The Sovereign Individual, exponential AI will give rise to what we might call The Sovereign AI Startup.

    Today, a single founder armed with nothing more than a laptop can conceive, validate and launch a new business in a matter of days. Add a Starlink Internet connection and they can do it from anywhere in the world. AI will accelerate and simplify this process even further:

    1. With generative AI, you can quickly prototype new products or services and iterate based on real-time customer feedback.
    2. With predictive AI, you can identify untapped market niches and optimize their offerings for maximum impact.
    3. And with autonomous AI agents, you can automate everything from customer support to supply chain management, allowing them to scale their operations with minimal overhead.

    In this AI-first world, a team of five might wield the capabilities of what once required 500. Imagine a customer support ‘department’ that’s a hyper-intelligent AI, learning and improving with each interaction, available 24/7 without a single human on the payroll. Envision data analysis so sophisticated and instantaneous that it feels like precognition, surfacing insights before you even know to look for them. Consider project management AI that doesn’t just track deadlines, but anticipates bottlenecks, suggests optimal resource allocation, and even mediates team conflicts with the wisdom of a seasoned executive.

    AI will become the antidote to corporate decay, taking over many of the routine tasks that often justify additional hiring in growing companies. With AI as a force multiplier, a small team can accomplish big things.  From data analysis and report generation to customer support and project management, AI will perform a significant portion of the work that currently requires human employees. This will allow companies to increase their output and impact without increasing their headcount proportionately. They can target their efforts with laser precision, focusing on the areas where human ingenuity is most needed. You can respond to customer needs and market changes with the speed and personalization that only a small, nimble team can deliver.

    Sovereign AI Startups, unencumbered by legacy systems and bureaucratic inertia, will be able to outmaneuver established players, disrupt industries, and create entirely new markets. They will be able to tap into a global pool of talent and resources and collaborate with other sovereign entities in fluid, ad-hoc networks that transcend geographic and institutional boundaries.

    The Convergence of Exponential Technologies

    It is not just AI as a technology that will change the way startups operate. The convergence of AI with other exponential technologies will revolutionize hardware development, enabling smart teams to achieve what once required armies of engineers and massive factories.

    For example, advanced robotics in fully automated factories will allow sovereign AI startups to access world-class manufacturing on demand, to prototype, iterate, and even manufacture complex devices with minimal human involvement.

    3D printing – for example – is evolving at breakneck speed, is already producing not just plastic prototypes but fully functional electronic components – which in the future will integrate seamlessly with AI-designed circuitry.

    In the future, a Sovereign AI Startup will be able to conceptualize a groundbreaking medical device, have AI optimize its design for both function and manufacturability, simulate its performance across millions of virtual scenarios, and then set autonomous robots to work building and testing physical prototypes. Machine learning algorithms will analyze test results in real-time, suggesting improvements that can be immediately implemented in the next iteration. The entire process – from idea to market-ready hardware product – could happen in weeks rather than years.

    This will lower the barriers to entry for hardware startups, allowing a proliferation of niche products tailored to specific needs that big companies might overlook. We’ll see an explosion of creativity as inventors are freed from the constraints of traditional manufacturing.

    I believe a world in which small teams can rapidly bring complex hardware to market will accelerate the pace of technological progress exponentially. The next world-changing invention might not come from a tech giant or a well-funded lab, but perhaps from a handful of determined individuals in a Sovereign AI Startup.

    The AI-Native Organizational Design

    As AI continues to advance, we can expect to see a rise in Sovereign AI Startups – companies built from the ground up with AI as a core part of their DNA – each hyper-focused on solving a specific problem or serving a niche market. These startups will be characterized by small, agile teams that – like Telegram – stay below Dunbar’s number and leverage AI to achieve outsized impact.

    The shift will bring with it a new paradigm of organizational design. One in which companies leverage AI not just as a tool, but as a key stakeholder and a core system that is intricately woven into every facet of a startup’s existence.

    The founder and visionary will be at the heart of the Sovereign AI Startup, providing the idea, overall direction, and purpose. The founder will work with a human core team, consisting of a small group of highly skilled individuals who focus on strategic, creative, and uniquely human tasks.

    An AI Core System will not just be a set of tools – as we know it today – but a central part of the organization, handling a wide range of operational, analytical, and decision-support functions.

    An important element of The Sovereign AI Startup will be its external network, a fluid ecosystem of on-demand talent, partners, and contributors that the company can tap into as needed.

    A structure like this allows for maximum flexibility and efficiency, enabling the company to stay lean while accessing a broad range of capabilities. It will allow the founder to keep the team size below Dunbar’s number with a human core team, while leveraging AI and a distributed external network to achieve scale. 

    This organizational design challenges the traditional notions of what constitutes a company, blurring the lines between internal and external, human and machine. As a result, AI entrepreneurs can move faster, decide smarter, and tackle challenges of unprecedented scope and complexity – independent of their physical location.

    Post-AI Organizational Collaboration

    With AI becoming an integral and core part of any organization, we will not only have to rethink how startups are organized internally, but also how organizations collaborate with each other.

    Benoit Vandevivere, who commented on Paul Graham’s post, argued that our current models of business organization are relics of a pre-digital, pre-AI era. This makes sense as we are arguably still operating with organizational structures and legal frameworks that were designed for a world of physical offices, face-to-face meetings, and human-only decision making.

    Benoit mentioned the idea of “artificial neural networks interconnecting natural neural networks” – the idea sounds complicated yet is a powerful idea for a future where the boundaries between companies become more fluid, with AI systems facilitating seamless collaboration and information flow across organizational lines.

    In the future, a startup might not just be a discrete entity, but a node in a larger network of interconnected businesses, each specializing in what they do best and relying on AI to coordinate their efforts. The “company” as we know it might evolve into something more akin to a dynamic, AI-mediated coalition of talent and resources, assembling and reassembling as needed to tackle specific challenges or opportunities.

    AI-Native Jurisdictions

    As we reimagine the nature of companies in the AI era, we must also consider the legal and regulatory frameworks that will enable these new organizational structures to thrive. Traditional jurisdictions, with their legacy laws and regulations, may struggle to accommodate the fluid, borderless nature of AI-native startups. This is where innovative legal zones like the Catawba Digital Economic Zone or a “network state” – as proposed by Balaji Srinivasan – come into play.

    The Catawba Digital Economic Zone (CDEC), established on Native American tribal land in South Carolina, is pioneering a regulatory environment tailored for digital businesses and cryptocurrencies. It offers a streamlined business registration process, favorable tax treatment, and regulations that are more attuned to the needs of AI and Web3 startups. But it’s not alone. For over a decade, Estonia’s e-Residency program allows digital entrepreneurs to start and run a business in the EU from anywhere in the world. Wyoming has positioned itself as a crypto-friendly state with laws recognizing DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) as legal entities. And in the Caribbean, Próspera in Honduras is creating a charter city with regulations designed for the digital age.

    These jurisdictions are fundamentally rethinking governance for the AI and Web3 era. They’re creating environments where smart contracts have legal standing, where AI agents could potentially hold rights and responsibilities, and where the lines between human and machine decision-making are acknowledged and accommodated in law.

    For founders building AI-native startups, these new jurisdictions offer more than just tax benefits or easier registration. They provide a legal and regulatory sandbox to experiment with new forms of organization and governance. They allow startups to operate in a framework that understands and supports their unique needs, from data sovereignty issues to the complexities of AI-human collaboration.

    In the coming years, the most successful AI startups may not just be those with the best technology or the most efficient operations, but those that have strategically positioned themselves in jurisdictions that truly understand and support their needs.

    The Rise of the Underdogs

    The rise of Sovereign AI Startups incorporated in AI-Native jurisdictions is a game-changer for entrepreneurs of smaller and underprivileged countries who don’t have access to talent pools or the legal infrastructure that exists in ‘top-tier’ countries like the United States, Singapore, or Hong Kong.

    Traditionally, they have been at a disadvantage in the global economy, unable to compete with larger countries that have deeper reservoirs of skilled workers and more favorable legal systems.

    But this is changing. By leveraging AI, making use of the remote talent pool, and favorable jurisdictions, a small team in a ‘developing country’ could potentially outperform a much larger team in Silicon Valley. Why? Because AI can level the playing field, handling tasks that once required specialized expertise. A founder in a remote country no longer needs to recruit a team of world-class engineers, data scientists, and marketers. Instead, they can leverage AI agents, on-demand experts, and freelance specialists to handle much of this work. By digitally setting up a LLC or C Corp in the Catawba Digital Economic Zone, they have access to a respected legal entity that can compete globally.

    Furthermore, we can expect AI to evolve into a bona fide co-founder. Founders who live outside of major startup ecosystems can struggle to find the right co-founder for their business idea. In the future, instead of looking for a human co-founder, founders will first set-up an AI Co-founder. AI will also take on other supportive roles that have traditionally been filled by humans – like mentors and advisory boards.

    Already today, smart entrepreneurs use advanced AI prompting in tools like ChatGPT or Claude to have a one-on-one mentoring session with Paul Graham, solve engineering problems with Richard Feynman, or to assemble an entire virtual advisory board of industry titans to stress-test their business strategy, overcome biases, and make smarter decisions. 

    In addition, the rise of remote work means these startups can tap into a global talent pool for specialized skills they do need, without requiring relocation. They can build truly decentralized teams while maintaining a lean local presence. This could lead to a new wave of innovation coming from unexpected places, as entrepreneurs in these underdog countries leverage their unique perspectives and local knowledge to solve global problems.

    Unleashing Human Creativity

    Smaller, agile companies and a lower barrier to entry is only one dimension of AI entrepreneurship. What is even more important is how AI has the potential to unleash and amplify human creativity.

    At its core, entrepreneurship is about creating something new and valuable in the world. It’s about seeing possibilities that others miss, and having the courage and determination to make them real. This is a fundamentally creative act, one that requires not just technical skill but also imagination, intuition, and a deep understanding of the human condition.

    As AI takes over more of the routine tasks of starting and running a business, I believe it will free entrepreneurs to focus more on this creative core. Instead of getting bogged down in the mechanics of incorporation, accounting, and HR, founders will be able to devote their energy to the higher-level work of envisioning new products, services, and business models.

    This is important not just for individual founders, but for society as a whole. In a world of increasing automation and AI, we’ll need more than ever the uniquely human capacity for creativity, intuition, and imagination. We’ll need entrepreneurs who can dream up new industries and new ways of creating value.

    The AI-Assisted Pursuit of Passion

    When successful entrepreneurs are asked about their recipe for their success, there is one word that comes up more frequently than anything else: passion. While “following one’s passion” is simple but less practical advice, I believe the underlying spiritual idea is correct. By pursuing our passion – what excites us most – we tap into a wellspring of creativity, motivation, and fulfillment. We do our best work, make our greatest contributions, and live our most meaningful lives.

    Historically, however, following one’s excitement has been a privilege reserved for a lucky few. For most people, work has been a matter of necessity, not passion. We’ve had to take jobs that pay the bills, even if they leave us feeling bored, unfulfilled, or worse. The demands of survival have often trumped the pursuit of excitement.

    But what if AI will change this equation? What if, by automating the boring, repetitive, and unexciting tasks that consume so much of our time and energy, AI can free us to focus on what truly excites us?

    In the future, AI will handle the drudgework of data entry, scheduling, and email management while robotics will increasingly take over physically demanding work. This will leave us humans with more time and headspace for creativity and problem-solving. Where AI takes over the tedious aspects of research and analysis, it allows us to focus on high-level insights and ideas. Where AI automates the mundane tasks of manufacturing and logistics, it enables us to pour our energy and creativity into design and innovation.

    In this future, work will be an opportunity to pursue our passions, to explore the frontiers of our curiosity, to create and contribute in ways that truly excite us.

    The Rise of AI-Enabled Polymath

    AI taking over mundane and uninspiring work will free individuals to pursue a much wider range of their inherent interests and passions. No longer constrained by the need to specialize in a single area to make a living, people will be able to explore multiple domains, cultivating a diverse set of skills and knowledge. In fact, I believe in the emerging era of AGI it will be crucial for individuals to pursue and master knowledge and skills in multiple domains.

    This, in turn, will lead us to a new era of polymaths – individuals who excel in multiple fields, bringing together insights and ideas from disparate areas to solve complex problems and create new innovations. Just as the Renaissance gave rise to legendary polymaths like Leonardo da Vinci and Galileo, the AI revolution will unleash a new generation of multi-talented thinkers and creators.

    In the future, a single person can be a skilled artist, a savvy entrepreneur, and a cutting-edge scientist all at once, using AI tools to handle the routine aspects of each pursuit while they focus on the creative and strategic work they truly enjoy. Or a brilliant engineer could also be a passionate philosopher and a gifted musician. This kind of cross-pollination of ideas and expertise – together with AI as our partner – could lead to breakthroughs and innovations that we can hardly imagine today.

    Conclusion

    In this essay, we’ve explored a range of ideas about how exponential AI will transform the landscape of entrepreneurship and work. We’ve seen how AI could enable startups to stay small and agile, lowering the barriers to entry and enabling a Cambrian explosion of new ventures. We’ve considered how AI could amplify human creativity, freeing entrepreneurs to focus on the visionary and strategic work of building the future. And we’ve imagined how AI, by taking over mundane and uninspiring tasks, could unleash a new era of polymaths, empowered to pursue their passions and bring cross-disciplinary insights to bear on the world’s challenges.

    Now let’s bring these threads together and consider how exponential AI will supercharge the way startups are run in the future.

    At its core, a startup is a vehicle for turning an idea into reality, for bringing something new into the world. It’s a crucible of innovation, a space where creativity and ambition collide to generate breakthroughs and create value.

    Historically, however, the process of starting and scaling a company has been fraught with friction and inefficiency. Founders have had to spend countless hours on mundane and repetitive tasks, from bookkeeping and scheduling to customer support and data entry. They’ve had to navigate the complexities of hiring, management, and bureaucracy, often at the expense of focusing on their core vision.

    Exponential AI promises to change all that. By automating the routine and the mundane, AI will enable founders to operate with unprecedented efficiency and agility. They’ll be able to test and iterate on ideas at lightning speed, using generative AI to rapidly prototype products and predictive AI to optimize go-to-market strategies. They’ll be able to scale their operations with minimal overhead, relying on AI-powered systems to handle everything from supply chain management to customer service.

    But the impact of AI on startups goes far beyond mere efficiency gains. By freeing founders to focus on their highest excitement and their deepest passions, AI will unleash a new wave of creativity and innovation in the startup world.

    It is a world where the barriers to entry are low but the bar for success is high, where anyone with a great idea and the drive to pursue it can build something truly remarkable. It’s a world where work is not a means to an end, but an end in itself – an ongoing adventure of learning, growth, and impact. And it’s a world where the most successful startups are not necessarily the biggest or the most well-funded, but the ones that are most deeply aligned with their founders’ passions and most adept at harnessing the power of AI to bring their visions to life.

    Of course, this doesn’t mean that entrepreneurship will become easy or that everyone will be able to do it. Even with AI tools, starting a successful business will still require grit, resilience, leadership, and a willingness to take risks. But it does mean that the playing field will be leveled, and that more people have the opportunity to participate in the creative process of entrepreneurship.

    But to fully realize this potential, we’ll need to rethink many of our assumptions about entrepreneurship and its role in society. We’ll need to move beyond the narrow focus on unicorn IPOs and billion-dollar valuations, and recognize that the true value of entrepreneurship lies in its ability to solve problems and create meaning.

  • »The Value Dividend Strategy« 1-Year Performance

    In my book The Value Dividend Strategy, which was published at the end of November 2002, I provided readers with two portfolios that at the time met the criteria of Value Dividend stocks. This article analyzes the performance of these portfolios after one year.

    Background

    On October 21, 2022, I screened the U.S. stock market against the criteria of The Value Dividend Strategy. As a result, I created two portfolios: one focused on value stocks that paid significantly high dividends, and one focused on value stocks that paid no dividends at all.

    In this performance review, we will evaluate the one-year performance of the two portfolios I created as of October 2022. Due to the publication date of my book, this performance review looks at the 1-year performance from October 21, 2022 through October 20, 2023. In the future, I will track and publish performance updates on an annual basis from January 1 through December 31. Therefore, as a subscriber, you can expect updated Value & Dividend portfolios on January 1st, 2024.

    At the time of creation, all stocks in the Value & Dividend portfolios had a low price-to-earnings ratio, high or no dividend payments, an Altman Z-score of >2.99, a Piotroski F-score of >6, and an equity-to-asset ratio of <0.5.

    Incidentally, in my book I emphasized that the value dividend strategy is particularly effective and yields the best returns when implemented toward the end of a recession. Keep in mind that this was not the case on October 21, 2022.

    The Dividend Portfolio

    The high dividend Value Dividend Strategy portfolio consisted of 14 stocks.

    The 1-year performance since inception of the portfolio is 17.31% excluding dividends paid.

    The average dividend yield of this portfolio at inception was 4.2%.

    The average performance was 17% with a standard deviation of 21%.

    The average dividend yield was approximately 4.19% with a standard deviation of 1.84%. This indicates a wide range of dividend yields among the companies, with a maximum yield of 8.98%.

    Hypothetically, if we’d only invested in the five best performing stocks, we could have returned 38% on undervalued value stocks.

    The question I’ll be answering in this publication through selected deep dives is how we can identify these winners early. If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing.

    The Non-Dividend Portfolio

    The non-dividend paying Value Dividend portfolio consisted of 21 stocks.

    The total 1-year performance since the portfolio’s inception is 15.04%.

    The Value Dividend portfolio, which pays no dividends, had an average performance of 15% with a standard deviation of 36%. This standard deviation is quite high as some stocks performed exceptionally well (100.70%) while others had large losses (-60.06%).

    Hypothetically, investing in the 5 best performing stocks would have resulted in a 64% gain – on low P/B value stocks!

    With non-dividend paying value stocks, the challenge is to weed out the bad performers while focusing on the high performers. That is what I will be focusing on in this newsletter. If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing.

    Distributions

    The Dividend Portfolio shows a more or less normally distributed performance curve, with most stocks clustered around moderate returns. This distribution suggests a relatively stable and less volatile investment landscape where gains are modest but more consistent.

    On the other hand, the non-dividend portfolio has an intriguingly skewed performance distribution, with returns spread over a wider range, including some significant outliers. This implies a higher risk/reward profile, with both significant upside potential and downside risk.

    Interestingly, the data shows that this higher volatility is positively correlated with lower price-to-book ratios, suggesting that undervaluation may be a catalyst for these extreme performances.

    Outpacing the Indices

    Let’s put those performances into perspective. Over the same period, the S&P 500 gained a respectable 10.75% and the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV) lagged with a modest gain of 1.44%.

    In stark contrast, both Value Dividend Strategy portfolios delivered returns that significantly outperformed these benchmarks.

    1. The Dividend Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 61% and the VTV Index by 1.100%.
    2. The non-dividend portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by 40% and the VTV Index by 942%.

    This serves as a powerful assertion that the Value Dividend Strategy may be more than just a theoretical construct – it may be a roadmap for achieving superior returns with undervalued stocks.

    As a result, I will be constructing Value Dividend Strategy portfolios on January 1 of each year, including an annual performance review. If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing.

    If you want to learn more on how I discovered this strategy and how the portfolios were created, you can read my book online or order a copy from amazon.com.

    Legal Disclaimer

    The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. The information, analysis, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of Marius Schober and do not represent, reflect or express the views of any other person or entity.

    This newsletter does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and you should not treat any of the newsletter’s content as such. Marius Schober does not recommend that any securities, transactions, or investment strategies mentioned in this newsletter are suitable for any specific person.

    The information provided in this newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Marius Schober does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy, or warrant its completeness or accuracy. Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment.

    All information and content in this newsletter are subject to change without notice. Prices, quotes, and other financial information may be out of date or inaccurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in securities involves risks, including the potential loss of all amounts invested.

    Marius Schober does not accept any liability for any loss or damage which is incurred from you acting or not acting as a result of reading any of our publications. You acknowledge that you use the information we provide at your own risk.

    By subscribing to this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer.

  • Why I Work on What I Work On

    When we talk about business plans, we talk about very specific plans on how to start and run a business. However, before we write a business plan, shouldn’t we define for ourselves what we want to work on in life?

    I extensively thought about what I want to work on in life – in parts quite philosophically. I did not develop my plan on what to work on in one evening. It is more the result of my merged interests, projects I worked on, books I read, and people I met. Something which evolved over many years.

    Over the past weeks, I tried to distill this clutter and write what you might call “My Plan for Work“. By reading it, you’ll get a great understanding why I work on what I work on. Hopefully, it will also help and inspire you to design your own “Plan for Work” as well.

    Because work is a crucial part of life, I started with the meaning and significance of life itself – before we can talk about work.

    The Significance of Life

    Work is an inextricable part of life. There is no work-life-balance. There is only life. Work is a crucial part of it. First, before we get to the subject of work, what is life all about?

    In 7.5 billion years, the thermonuclear fuel of the sun, hydrogen, will be depleted. The sun will turn into a “red giant” star which will vaporize the planet Earth we inhibit today.

    It is a beautiful reminder that – in the cosmos of time – nothing we do or could ever achieve has any significance.

    But we don’t have to go that far into the future to realize our total insignificance.

    Off the cuff, can you name one significantly successful person of the 18th century? I can not. Less than 300 years have passed, and we cannot remember a single successful person of that time – unless we studied history.

    For me, it is clear, nobody will remember my name 500 years from today. I don’t strive for it. And I believe if you strive for it, it’s megalomaniac. What is the point of wanting people, who you’ll never get to know, to know your name anyway?

    All status and ego games are sheer waste of human potential and a degradation of the soul.

    Because nothing I could ever achieve will be of any significance in the cosmos of time, the question of how I want to live my life – thus what I want to work on – becomes a spiritual and philosophical question.

    Luckily, the question of what it means to live life is already answered within the question itself: life is supposed to be lived.

    I don’t want to merely survive until I die. I want to feel alive. I want to truly live every single moment of your life.

    How do I feel alive and truly live? By taking risks.

    I cannot live my life to its fullest by opting for the easy, safe, and comfortable options. Only by stretching beyond my comfort zone do I truly feel alive. When I face a choice, I always try to choose the riskier more difficult option – even though the easy option might be the right choice. Why? Only by picking the riskier option do I feel the adrenaline pumping through my body and oxytocin being released. I truly live life by taking risks and stretching my comfort zone.

    But is life solely about living and expressing our beauty and creativity on earth?

    No. I believe to purely live life is not enough. We have to fulfill our potential. Somehow, all of us were gifted with a surprisingly high intelligence, high creativity, and high curiosity. If god only wanted us to live life, why would he have given us such a high intelligence, creativity, and curiosity? But having these qualities enables us to question everything, to solve problems we see and to invent solutions. I believe that we were born on this planet to fulfill our full potential. Not to merely survive. But to become the absolute best version of ourselves.

    Becoming the best version of oneself also mean’s I have to nourish and develop my soul and expand my consciousness. How do you develop your soul? By living rightfully.

    At the core of all major religions – whether it is Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Taoism, Judaism, or Hinduism – you can find guidelines on how to live rightfully.

    You might summarize the core teachings from all major religions into these 10 rules which I try to abide and live by:

    1. Love and respect God, the universe, and all living beings.
    2. Treat others as you would like to be treated, with compassion and kindness.
    3. Practice self-discipline, self-control and strive for mastery.
    4. Seek inner peace and live in harmony with the world around you.
    5. Follow a moral and ethical code, including not lying, stealing, or harming others.
    6. Be humble and avoid pride and arrogance.
    7. Be honest and truthful in all your actions and dealings with others.
    8. Show gratitude for the blessings in your life.
    9. Be generous and give to those in need.
    10. Seek spiritual enlightenment and strive to live a life of purpose and meaning.

    No matter which religion you follow, I believe religions should still play an important role in our society. Not because of the literal teachings but particularly because of the ethical guidelines they offer.

    I always try to abide and live by these ethical guidelines. They allow me to live a principled and spiritual life full of risk and adventures.

    As I’ve already mentioned, work is an inextricable part of life. This means all these principles also apply equally to what I work on. I don’t look at work and life as two separate things.

    Business as a Playing Field

    Work and thus business is not only about earning a living. It is what makes the world work. Everything around me – the house I’m living in, the MacBook on which I’m typing this text, the chair I’m sitting on and the Sencha tea I’m drinking – was created by an entrepreneur who took the risk and created something of value for society.

    For me, business is like a giant playing field with dozens of industries, hundreds of sectors, and thousands of niches in which you can create value for society.

    Within this gigantic playing field, I can choose the character with which I’d like to play the game of business.

    For example, I can be an inventor, an entrepreneur, a scientist, a manager, a specialist, or an investor. I strive to be all of them – at the same time.

    And because the playing field of business is so gigantic, I can also choose the location: where I want to work.

    Next, I can also choose the people with which I want to work and do business with – ranging from partners to investors and employees.

    Exactly because we as humans are so insignificant, I see work – and thereby business – as a game I am supposed to play in order to achieve self-mastery, to prove my character, to develop my soul, and ultimately fulfill my potential.

    Mimesis in Business

    The playing field of business is gigantic. The options seem unlimited. The most important task for myself is to define exactly the character with which I want to enter this playing field of business. If we don’t carefully define the playing character ourselves, we will end up imitating what others are doing.

    This is explained beautifully in the mimetic theory of René Girard. It is a theory of social psychology that suggests that people imitate the desires and behaviors of others, rather than following their own individual desires and values. In the context of business, this means that entrepreneurs are influenced by the desires and behaviors of others when deciding what business they’d like to start.

    For example, an entrepreneur may observe that a particular industry or type of business is currently popular or successful, and may decide to start a similar business in order to imitate that success. This can lead to a proliferation of businesses that are very similar to one another, as each entrepreneur is imitating the desires and behaviors of others rather than pursuing their own unique ideas and values.

    Imagine a playing field where a small part is crowded with people, while all other parts of the playing field are sparsely populated.

    The problem is that independently considering our own passions and interests is not as easy. According to René Girard, mimesis is an innate and universal human tendency that arises from our need to form relationships and social bonds, making it impossible to completely escape. Therefore, the best way to minimize mimesis seems to lie in our choice of role models. To do so, I have consciously selected those who embody the values and qualities I admire, rather than simply imitating those who are most successful or popular.

    Three of my biggest role models are Alfred Herrhausen, Peter Thiel, and Charlie Munger.

    Alfred Herrhausen was a prominent German banker and former chairman of Deutsche Bank who played a key role in shaping the country’s economic and political landscape during the late 20th century. His worldview centered around the importance of business as a force for positive change in society. He was committed to building bridges between the worlds of finance, politics, and culture to create a more sustainable and equitable future. Unfortunately he was murdered in a car bombing before I was born, but his biographies and essays inspire me who I want to become.

    Peter Thiel is an American entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and author, known for co-founding PayPal, investing in numerous successful startups, and his controversial views on various social and political issues. His worldview is characterized by his belief in the transformative power of technology, his embrace of contrarian and libertarian ideals, and his vision of the future as a space of boundless innovation and progress. His courage to stand up for contrarian standpoints and his relentless aim for real progress strongly define how I think about business and innovation.

    Charlie Munger is an American businessman, investor, and philanthropist, best known as the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and a close partner of Warren Buffett. His worldview is marked by his belief in the value of rational thinking and lifelong learning, by his focus on seeking out high-quality businesses with long-term potential, and his commitment to ethical behavior and personal responsibility. His rational approach to life and business helps me as a compass in my life and business.

    Freeing Myself from Mimesis

    Back to mimesis and our playing field of business. As I started to grasp the ramifications of mimesis, I sat down to define in which area of the gigantic playing field of business I don’t want to play in.

    The answers surprised me. I did not want to start another startup. Neither did I want to become just another value investor who is allocating capital to undervalued businesses. Just as getting involved in finance – such as corporate finance and private equity – was turning me off. Even though I am naturally interested in writing or creating media, I had no interest in creating just another media company.

    Having defined what I don’t want made it easier to define in which area of the gigantic playing field of business I want to play in.

    As I reflected on my authentic self while considering the opportunities I saw at hand, slowly, things got clear, and I created a vision which I am very excited about.

    My vision is to blend these seemingly contrarian philosophies of the exciting high-growth, high-risk, short-term startup-venture-capital world and the conservative high-cashflow, low-risk, long-term value-investment world.

    Not in any industry, but particularly in health.

    One thing I don’t want to build is a conglomerate of dozens of great businesses which are part of all kinds of different industries. Instead, I want to build a streamlined business focussed on a few selected future-proof niches within the health industry. Quasi a conglomerate within the health industry.

    Why health? Ever since I can remember, I’m fiercely interested in health and longevity. In essence: How to be as healthy as possible to live as long as possible. This is why I dedicated my life to it and formulated my massively transformative purpose: “Inspire and guide humanity to reach our full potential and live a fulfilled and naturally healthy and long life.“

    Combining these contrarian business philosophies in an area I’m extremely passionate about – health and longevity – gives me a purpose to wake up each morning with excitement. In the long term it will also be my edge over anyone who competes with me.

    Creating a Plan

    As I started to think about ways to combine these disciplines, I also looked at the overall big picture. Trends which will inevitably impact and transform our society.

    The first thing I realized was it was not blockchain or artificial intelligence which is about to impact our society drastically in the near future. Rather it is the demographic change. We are entering a Silver Economy, an economy shaped by the demographic transition, in which – among others – business owners have to find a successor, or they must shut down their business. Hence, thousands of well-conducted and vital businesses will be for sale over the coming 15 to 20 years. These are businesses which are providing real value to our society today. Some of them might be described as boring and unsexy businesses – especially when compared to startups – such as home health, handicraft businesses, laboratories, or snow removal. These businesses are crucial for a functioning society. Artificial intelligence cannot yet care for your grandmother, draw blood, repair your sink, or clear the snow from our highways. Each boring business provides crucial products and services just as dozens of jobs which in turn support dozens of families.

    For me, it became clear that I wanted to use this opportunity to apply and combine principles from both worlds – the value investment and startup world – to create a unique business.

    First Buying

    My decision was clear that, instead of founding a startup with a high failure rate, I will start by acquiring great businesses at a fair price. Businesses with a solid track record of consistent earnings growth, strong cash flows, and a clear path to continued growth.

    My overall idea is to find three or four businesses in three or four niches within the health care or health technology industry. As soon we find and acquire a great business in a certain niche, we will follow up with multiple further acquisitions within the same niche. Not with the goal to create the largest but rather the best run and most profitable group within that niche. A long-term approach with a strong focus on sustainability rather than aggressive growth.

    I don’t build a business with the intention to sell it. I rather invest my time and energy into building a business I can be proud of, a business which creates value for society, a business I can still joyously be the chairman of when I’m 99 years old.

    To build such a long-term oriented business, I defined a strict – quite conservative –investment hypothesis:

    1. Small, Excellent Businesses at Fair Prices
    We buy excellent businesses at fair prices – which are too small for traditional private equity firms but often too large for employee buyouts – which excel in quality, management, and potential.

    2. Healthy and Sustainable Growth
    We put quality over quantity by focussing on a smaller portfolio of excellent and industry-leading businesses and by avoiding aggressive growth by acquiring mediocre businesses.

    Then Innovating

    By following these principles of acquiring excellent, small businesses at fair prices and by emphasizing health and sustainable growth, we will build up a healthy basis of equity and cashflow. Thus, we not only create a very healthy business, we also create a foundation from which we can develop technology and new business models to disrupt markets we are participating in. By combining stability with innovation, we create unique competitive advantages which will allow us to evolve into a monopoly within our niches.

    Traditionally, one starts with an innovative bold business idea. Instead of starting with the bold idea, we stay open-minded to great businesses and opportunities in a wider range of promising, future-proof, and fragmented niches within the health and longevity industry. The market will then guide us towards three to four specific niches within the health industry through the businesses we find and acquire.

    As we find and acquire the first business, we stick to this niche by seeking further great businesses to acquire within that specific niche to build a very profitable portfolio of companies within that niche.

    The plan is to repeat this process in three to four different niches of the health industry resulting in a health conglomerate with three to four portfolios of extraordinary high quality businesses.

    As soon we established a foundation within one niche, we will not only optimize these through digitalization, marketing, sales, and branding – but also develop new innovative business models and technology which will create unique competitive advantages and lift these businesses out of their competitive landscape into a new blue ocean.

    If you know me, you’ll know that I’m nothing but short of ideas. Give me a problem or show me a business, and I’ll give you dozens of quality ideas on how you can solve it and improve it. Every day I come up with at least a dozen of ideas of how I can solve a problem, improve an existing business, or innovate. Innovation is in my blood.

    By changing the order – from finding a great business first before turning on my idea engine gives me mental freedom. Instead of starting with dozens of innovative and revolutionizing ideas, I first focus on one thing: finding great businesses. Innovation comes second – with the aim is to infuse innovation into great but seemingly boring businesses to grow them and fulfill their full potential.

    I’m absolutely certain that ultimately, by focussing on the long-term, I can build a unique business over the next decades, the likes of Berkshire Hathaway. And by doing so, I can attain self-mastery, build my character, fulfill my potential, and most importantly live a principled and exciting life.

    What It Is All About In The End

    Again, in the end, nothing I can ever accomplish will be of any meaning within the endless vastness of the universe. Nothing. This makes it all the more important that I focus my energy on living rightfully and developing my own soul and consciousness.

    We spend approximately one third of our day working. Work is such a crucial part of who we are. Therefore, to fulfill my own potential, I have to strive for mastery in what I work on.

    I believe that only by constantly striving for self-mastery and by applying and developing our creativity and intelligence can create progress and by doing so ultimately fulfill our potential on earth.

  • Questioning Everything

    Ever since, I’m well known for being the curious guy who is always asking the challenging and often uncomfortable questions. Questions about life, philosophy, religion, science, health, politics, or business. It may be to optimize my life, to innovate, to think outside the box, or to call bullshit and detect and fight corruption. Ultimately, I ask questions to find the truth.

    I believe, this is something everyone should do. We all should question everything around us. Because the only solution to all of the surrounding misery is ultimately the truth. And we can only get to the truth by asking the challenging and tough questions – about everything.

    Children Intuitively Question

    Children intuitively question everything they observe. As they explore and try to make sense of their environment, they ask countless questions. Before we can explain why the grass is green, they dive into the science and philosophy of life, space, and time.

    With the example of children, we can see that by questioning – you explore complex ideas. But not only that. You also uncover their implicit assumptions, you expose deeply held beliefs, and you recognize hidden contradictions.

    As we can observe in our children, curiosity, and questioning are part of our natural intelligence. Why is it so difficult for us adults to maintain this innate curiosity to question everything around us?

    Our education system is a major reason why most people lose their childhood curiosity and their innate skepticism. As soon we are six years old, we enter an education system which is entirely based on dogma. In school and later in university, we are forced to memorize facts. Nobody teaches us to question these facts and discover everything around us. In fact, challenging the facts gets punished – not rewarded. And because we only memorize and never question what we are being lectured, we never really engage with this knowledge, and thus we can never build upon it.

    Instead of lecturing, we should focus on questioning – again.

    Instead of lecturing, we should focus on questioning.
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    Questioning from an Historical Perspective

    The Buddha encouraged questioning. It is seen as a fundamental skill which is still embraced in the practices of modern Buddhists today. Tibetan Buddhist monks often have a daily practice of “debate” where one monk continually questions the other monk for an entire hour. The purpose of this practice was to train logic, mental concentration and intense exchange.

    Socrates was well known as the questioner of everything. He also used questioning as a teaching method to explore the unknown and evaluate the validity of an argument. To do so, he asked questions after questions until his students arrived at their own understanding. He rarely revealed or lectured opinions or knowledge on his own, rather, he taught his students to dissect their thoughts and ideas by questioning everything. Even his death embodied the spirit of questioning every assumption, as he was condemned for death penalty because of his teachings.

    Quite similar is Chavrusa, a traditional Jewish learning method. Chavrusa challenges a small group of students to analyze and explain the learning material to each other, point out errors in their partners’ reasoning, and sharpen each other’s ideas by questioning them. By doing so, they often arrive at entirely new insights into the meaning of a text they are studying.

    The Chavrusa is beautifully showing how questioning takes the familiar and makes it mysterious again. There is no teacher lecturing the meaning. There is nothing to memorize. It removes the comfort of “knowing”. Instead of memorizing, you explore complex ideas on your own. You uncover their implicit assumptions, you expose deeply held beliefs, you recognize hidden contradictions. You develop your own sense, think more clearly and change the way you see and perceive reality.

    Philosophy and Science as Oneness

    Our current education and university system is not only focussing on lecturing facts, they are also trying to categorize everything into small categories and subjects. Scientists and educators then look at these tiny subjects only independently of each other – and ultimately miss what’s really going on.

    This narrow-minded thinking leads to very abstract science and philosophies. We focus purely on terminology and thereby divide the world into logic and creativity. By separating logic and creativity, we ultimately miss the existential truth encompassing all of it.

    For example, let’s assume you understand everything about the brain: neurochemistry, neurobiology and so forth. Does it mean you understand consciousness? No. Looking at a separate subject alone is not sufficient. To really understand our world, we need to look at the whole.

    Separating logic and creativity is therefore nonsense. The word creativity itself comes from create. It is not only art and philosophy which you create. You also create plans, you create logical rules, you create science, and you create inventions. Science and philosophy are one – but we separated it into tiny little subjects which we only look at separately. But this is wrong and has not always been the case.

    Philosophy and science were once very closely connected and inseparably intertwined. Both: logical argument and creative thinking were renowned ways to explore and explain the natural world. There weren’t many “facts” that were known for certain. The idea of using experiments and data to understand the world only started to become popular in the middle of the second millennium. Since then, science and philosophy have grown apart – both – in subjects and methodologies.

    Today, you’ll rarely see scientists and philosophers exchanging ideas. But it is precisely what we need. We need philosophers questioning scientists and scientists questioning philosophers. Even more, what we need are people who integrate all the aspects of art, science, philosophy, and practical creation into one unified art of science.

    Because science, philosophy, art, and spirituality are all one, you always have to be open-minded. You should never categorize yourself into one category, for example: “I’m a scientist” or “I’m an artist”. Instead, you have to be everything. You are an artist, a scientist, a philosopher, and you are spiritual. All at the same – because otherwise you will miss the wholeness as you only look at the world from a very limited perspective.

    As soon we can grasp the wholeness of everything again, innovation, re-thinking, or going from Zero-to-One will become natural states of our inner-being again – not some innovation workshops we have to attend.

    To innovate and discover new things, we first have to forget all the beliefs which we have of ourselves, like: ”I’m a logical person, I’m not creative”. This is bullshit.

    Do everything – to discover everything: Art and science are one.

    Do everything – to discover everything: Art and science are one.
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    If you describe yourself today as a logical person, you might want to learn an art or craft, such as making music or painting. By being creative, you’ll learn that there is more than the logical mind.

    If you describe yourself today as a very creative person, you might want to learn mathematics and physics. By doing so, you’ll learn about the significance of logic.

    Question Everything!

    To make new discoveries and inventions, we finally have to start thinking for ourselves again. Many people believe they are thinking for themselves, which is gigantic bullshit. From the very first second of our lives, we have been conditioned with dogma and the desires of other people. People are naturally mimicking other people and other people’s desires.

    Before we can make new discoveries, we have to first free ourselves from all the indoctrinated dogma we received. We have to free ourselves from all the limiting beliefs we have of ourselves. In other words: before we can discover new truths, we must start to think critically.

    We have to have skepticism. We have to doubt our own experiences, our own standards, our own concepts. By questioning our own prejudices, beliefs, and conclusions, our mind becomes clearer and more active. We free our mind from conventional wisdom, from dogma, which helps us to discover what we want in life. It prevents us from doing the same which has already been done before. It prevents us from repeating mistakes and problems. It leads us to discover great new things – for our lives and the lives of others.

    Discovery doesn’t mean that we have to endlessly sit and do research. For some people, yes. But for other people, discovery can also mean a practical mission to materialize things you envision.

    This discovery process is a journey of life. In this journey, you need to be humble. Ultimately, it is about arriving at the truth. Still, we all have egos. Pay attention to it. People always want to be right. But trying to have the better argument prevents us from discovering truths.

    Again: Question everything!

    We are often afraid to ask the most challenging questions because when we challenge the core of our beliefs, we will have to admit to ourselves: “I know nothing and I have to start all over again.”

    Questioning everything and being honest about it will hurt. It is worth it.

    Ultimately, by questioning everything we see, read, know, and believe, we will enter a new age of great discoveries and thereby an abundance of prosperity and – most importantly – a lot of joy.

  • Ambition Magnets

    Over the last two years, we’ve seen a massive shift towards remote work. Employees were forced to work from home. Just as executives, lawyers, and civil servants. Many enjoyed and learned to love working remotely from where they want to work – not from where they have to work.

    This shift towards working remotely also affected young entrepreneurs and researchers. Suddenly, they could work from where they liked – not from where their peers, co-founders, customers, investors, or employees were located.

    This shift towards remote has been so significant that it will never return to normal – meaning pre-2020.

    People enjoy working remotely for a variety of reasons. You can summarize all of them under one term: “freedom”.

    However, making use of this newly gained freedom comes with a cost.

    The location and thus the city where one lives has an enormous impact on one’s ambition.

    Where you live has an impact on how ambitious you pursue your goals and thus whether we – as a human society – advance.

    Back in 2015, I spent just over a month in Silicon Valley. The entire neighborhood screamed at me: do more, risk more, innovate more! I lived in a shared housing with a couple of other entrepreneurs and everyone was hustling hard on their startup idea. Every night I could attend meet-ups on a variety of bold topics with people at least 10x smarter than me.

    The first time I ever set foot in Palo Alto, I stepped into a small café. After I grabbed my coffee, I sat down at a table outside, just next to the door. On the opposite side of the door, was sitting an energetic bold man. Somehow we got into a nice small talk until he was joined by a nerdy guy in his late 20s. While I leaned back to enjoy my coffee, they started to converse about a potential multi-million dollar investment into the startup of the nerd who just arrived. It turned out I was by chance talking to a big investor. As you can imagine, this encounter fueled me with a desire to achieve more. It fueled my ambition.

    Palo Alto is also home to one of the most prestigious universities in the world – Stanford University. Which is why the chance of running into one of the smartest engineers in the world or the next Mark Zuckerberg so high.

    The Silicon Valley used to be a magnet for ambitious people. People who wanted to grab power and change the world by creating technology.

    London and New York City are for finance – what the Silicon Valley and San Francisco were for technology. These two cities are the strongest magnets in the world which attract people who want to become super rich.

    When I visited London for the first time, the entire city was screaming at me: Earn more! Get rich! And dress better!

    The key point is the following: certain cities attract certain people.

    The Silicon Valley is a magnet for ambitious entrepreneurs who aim to change the world through technology.

    London and New York are magnets for people who want to get rich by any means.

    Shenzhen is attracting entrepreneurs who wish to build the great hardware of the future.

    Los Angeles is attracting all the people who want to become famous at all cost.

    Cambridge is attracting the world’s most intelligent people.

    Tenerife, where I currently live, is attracting people who seek quality of life above everything else.

    Cities are not great because of their macro factors, but because of the people they are attracting.

    The most ambitious researchers will do everything to get to Cambridge where he can be surrounded by the smartest people of the world.

    The most ambitious technology entrepreneurs will do everything they can to move to Silicon Valley or Austin – only losers will stay in Berlin or Lisbon.

    Just like strong magnets, the best of the best are all attracted to the major city of their field – principally because of the ambitious people they encounter there.

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    Magnetic Fields of Cities

    After two years of remote work, many people have realized that almost everything is better remote.

    You choose where you live: a sunny town with affordable housing prices. Or in your hometown, very close to your loved family.

    Instead of a tiny city apartment, you now have a large house with a garden in which you can see your children joyously playing.

    You’re growing your fruits and vegetables in your garden and the food is more delicious than ever.

    Finally, you can work without any distraction and with it your productivity is skyrocketing.

    Everything seems perfect, but your ambition is declining. The magnetic field of the big cities is still palpable. It is whispering at you: You can be more. You can be richer. You can be smarter. Etcetera.

    Even though your quality of life is now a 10 out of 10, you deep inside feel the magnetic field of the big city. Whatever it is you want to accomplish – might it be intellectual, creative, or financial – you know that there is a place on earth where the smartest, most creative, or richest people live. And you know exactly:

    • Being in one of these cities is energizing your inner ambition.
    • Being outside these cities is soothing your inner ambition.

    From Libraries to the Internet

    We’ve finally arrived at a point where the location matters less and less. You finally can work from anywhere – if you wish to.

    I decided to do so in April 2022, when my wife and I moved to the island of Tenerife. An absolutely stunning island in the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of Africa and the Sahara desert. Delicious fruits, tasty vegetables, a lot of sunshine, great people.

    The quality of life is a 10 out of 10 here. I couldn’t imagine a better place to life.

    But as soon as I moved to Tenerife – I still sensed this magnetic field of the world’s most ambitious cities. I feel and know that there is a city out there, where I should rather be, in order to be all I can be.

    But it is not the city. It is the people in the city which are luring me. The melting pot of like-minded ambitious individuals working towards similar goals.

    I have the feeling that if I never go there, I might never meet the people I should meet, which may prevent me from fulfilling my full potential. And this feeling can kill you inly.

    On the other hand, I know with absolute certainty that cities are not the solution.

    Cities evolved over hundreds and thousands of years. Cities were – so far – humanities greatest invention. They allowed people to come together to work on science, arts, politics, philosophy, and religion. Our ancestors created universities, libraries, and town halls. Cities became melting pots of people. And over time, certain cities got to be known for certain specializations: knowledge, art, fashion, philosophy, business, etcetera.

    Moving to a city was the only way to meet people and gather knowledge.

    There were no computers and there was no internet then. Which means: no PDFs, no email, no Google, no e-books, no blogs, no chat rooms, no social media, etcetera.

    Today – on top of all of that – we also have the technology for free global calls. We have high definition video calls. We have virtual reality headsets. Not only that, but we have hundreds of collaboration tools. And most importantly, we have the entire knowledge of humankind accessible within seconds– not only on our computers but on our smartphones we carry around all day long.

    But despite all the technological solutions we have accessible today, the magnetic field of ambition is still centered around cities.

    If you are serious, a city is still this melting pot of people where you can blossom.

    Digital Ambition Magnets

    In cities, the infrastructure is only a small part of what makes people want to move there. The primary reason people move to cities is because of the people living there. Which is launching an endless loop.

    In cities, where smart and ambitious people come together:

    1. Science happens
    2. Ideas form
    3. Inventions are made
    4. Businesses are started
    5. Jobs are created
    6. Wealth is accumulating

    The more smart and ambitious people move to a certain city, the better the city is doing.

    Meeting and being with ambitious people has an exponential ripple effect. This exponential ripple effect – which I call the ambition magnet – is always happening when people with ambition and intellect convene. In the past, it just made sense that cities evolved into ambition magnets because these were the places where smart people met.

    Today, we are experiencing a turning point in human evolution. For the first time, we see smart and ambitious people move out of big cities. While the magnets of ambitious cities still pull in ambitious people, the internet reduced the force of these magnets. Not only that, but thanks to the internet, smart and ambitious people can now collaborate regardless of their physical location.

    Just as in the 1940s the smartest physicists and mathematics gathered in Los Alamos in New Mexico to create godlike weapons, today the smartest physicists and mathematics can come together regardless of their physical location. With the internet, the boundaries of physical location are of little importance.

    Imagine how our human species can evolve if we don’t limit science and innovation to physical locations – i.e., cities and countries.

    Imagine what can happen when many brilliant and ambitious people not only from the United States, Germany, or the United Kingdom, but also from India, Cameroon, Nicaragua, The Philippines, Russia, and China come together to work on our world’s biggest problems and our world’s unresolved mysteries.

    I am certain that if we create digital spaces, where ambition and intellect is not separated by location, we – as a human species – can evolve towards the next step.

    To achieve this, these digital spaces cannot simply be a combination of email, collaboration tools, online forums, chat and video calls.

    Instead, these digital spaces must be designed from first principles basically from scratch.

    First, digital spaces for intellect and ambition must have a magnetic field at least as strong as the world’s most ambitious cities. Currently, the magnetic field of Cambridge with Harvard and MIT is attracting the world’s smartest people to move there. A digital space must have an ambition magnet just as strong as cities like Cambridge, the Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, Shanghai, London, New York City, or Austin.

    To do so, the smartest of the smartest must be committed to this digital space.

    Digital ambition magnets must allow random accidental meetings. Just as I walked into a café in Palo Alto and all of a sudden, found myself talking to a VC investor. Or just as you randomly meet fellow students in a lecture, the cafeteria, on the campus or an event.

    It must also have some kind of entry barrier. For Cambridge, this bullshit filter consists of a ridiculously high tuition fee, a tough selection process, high housing prices, pitiful weather, and a U.S. visa if you’re from abroad.

    For digital ambition magnets, there shouldn’t be an entry barrier based on the economic situation or nationality but rather based on input. The more smart and useful contributions you make, the higher your status in this digital space becomes. The higher your status, the more exclusive and small the communities you can interact and work with.

    When creating a global digital space, it must also be clear, that the intellectual property and spin-offs are based on a rock-solid legal basis. This might be established with smart contracts secured on a blockchain.

    By creating a legal system for these digital spaces, we also turn on the magnetic field for investors. They can now join digital ambition magnets and fund these communities, digital research endeavors and digital businesses.

    Most importantly, digital ambition magnets must be created as digital spaces which are fun and exciting to use.

    No one wants to join video calls, write emails or post in forums. Digital spaces must be built upon existing technologies but by doing so, re-invent what it feels to use them.

    Imagine it as a blend of chats, forums, video-calls, voice messages, videos, photos, and VR games.

    As soon a digital ambition magnet is created, it will attract the world’s most ambitious people of a certain field. Whether it is science, entrepreneurship, or philosophy.

    This digital ambition magnet becomes a real mastermind which can attack the world’s biggest problems and mysteries.

    By making it digital first, we remove the biggest barrier of entry: location.

    Some people cannot move to a certain city because of their nationality or financial situation. Others would rather not move to a certain city because of family values and traditions. Others don’t want to move to big cities because they hate the city life.

    Nevertheless, the intelligence and creativity of these individuals who – for whatever reason – cannot or want not move to a certain city may, in fact, be the key to scientific and technological breakthroughs.

    Today, by being at the wrong location, the potential of these people is wasted. Tomorrow, with digital ambition magnets, their talent, intellect, and creativity is used productively and will be crucial to solve the world’s most important problems.

    It is not a question of IF, but a question of HOW and HOW FAST we can design and create digital ambition magnets, as they are the key to advance human evolution and consciousness.

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