There is a real debate going on whether the German government should provide Lilium – a 9-year-old, publicly-listed money loosing eVTOL company, without a single successful realistic test-flight – a €150M loan. (It decided not to, good.)
The real issue I see is that public funding socializes risk and losses, forcing taxpayers—like my parents (!!)—to cover the bets of government employees who lack skin in the game, all under the guise of ‘deep tech’ and ‘innovation.’
Worse, I don’t want German taxpayers’ money supporting a so-called ‘German’ company headquartered in the Netherlands and listed in the USA.
IF a company seeks public loans, all its shareholders and executives should be personally liable for the full amount (and what they promise)—no exceptions. Only then can we can talk about a loan from tax-payers.
Furthermore, it seems that private and institutional investors are not willing to provide any more funding to achieve the alleged test flights in 2025. If private investors are not willing to put any more money into the company – why should the tax payer?
What should Germany do? Lower taxes. Deregulate. But don’t become a VC.
Global fertility rates are plummeting. Countries like the U.S. (1.64), China, Japan, and Spain (all below 1.2) face drastic population reductions – up to 80% over three generations. South Korea’s rate of 0.7 could trigger a 96% decline. This is not only a demographic issue but also an economic time bomb.
For real estate, fewer people means fewer homes needed. An aging population will favor downsizing and specialized housing, while larger family homes sit vacant. Urban areas may initially absorb the shock, but even cities will face declining demand. Property values and rental incomes will inevitably fall, hurting investments and slowing construction. Immigrant-driven growth, which propped up Europe’s housing markets for decades, is no longer a reliable cushion as the fertility rate plunges across the globe and across ethnicities.
As demand shifts, so will the nature of housing. Assisted living, multi-generational homes, and adaptive reuse projects will dominate, while sprawling suburban developments could become ghost towns. Governments may attempt to incentivize higher birth rates or attract foreign buyers, but the long-term trajectory points toward overcapacity and falling values.
So-called “researched climate models” are nothing more than digital crystal balls, fed by human arrogance and mere morsels of data. These models are as “researched” as the deep ocean – we’ve barely scratched the surface.
The climate system is a labyrinth of countless variables and feedback loops:
Solar cycles and variations in solar output
Earth’s orbital changes (Milkankovitch cycles)
Galactic cosmic rays influencing cloud formation
Plate tectonics altering ocean currents and atmospheric circulation
Volcanic activity injecting aerosols and gases
Geomagnetic field fluctuations affecting atmospheric protection
Deep ocean currents and heat distribution
Ocean acidification
Sea ice dynamics and albedo effects
Greenhouse cas concentrations (CO₂, methane, water vapor)
Aerosole distributions from natural and anthropogenic sources
Ozone layer variations
Forest cover changes affecting carbon sinks
Soil microbiome dynamics influencing greenhouse gas emissions
Potential dark matter interactions with Earth’s core
The climate system is a multi-dimensional, multi-scale phenomenon where microscopic quantum effects may cascade into global changes and cosmic events can trigger earthly responses. Our current models, focused primarily on greenhouse gases and simple feedback loops, are akin to trying to predict the outcome of a symphony by looking only at the trombone section.
The sheer number of variables and their non-linear interactions make accurate long-term prediction an impossible task.
MAYBE quantum computing and superintelligent AI might someday crack the climate code. But today’s models? They’re monuments to our stupendous arrogance. We’re using abacuses to calculate infinity, patting ourselves on the back for our “accuracy.” It’s not just misguided—it’s dangerously delusional.
Our current understanding is but a drop in the ocean of what there is to know. Instead of boasting about “researched climate models,” we should humbly speak of “preliminary climate hypotheses.”
At the IAA TRANSPORTATION, the world’s leading trade fair for mobility, transport, and logistics, I talked to a Chinese salesman from Shandong province. He said since COVID-19, the Chinese economy is worsening every day, describing the Chinese economy and their order situation as “poorly”. He was working on a commission basis for an industrial robotics company. His base salary – he said – is only covering his “insurances”, nothing more. When a sales person like this talks, you listen. His livelihood depends on actual transactions, not theoretical models. The overall quiet at most supplier booths at the exhibition only amplified his concerns.
Are we prepared for a future where the workshop of the world falls silent?
Yesterday, at 7AM I was drinking an Espresso in the city center of Düsseldorf. Only a 1,5 hour drive later I arrived at the High Tech Campus (HTC) in Eindoven, the home of PHILIPS, Signify, and dozens of other technology companies and startups.
This 90 minute drive felt like time traveling from the past into the present. The HTC greeted me with an infrastructure that reminded me of the Google Campus in Mountain View, California. The entire campus is designed car-free. Well not literally, because it has a direct access to the high way and offers generous free parking spaces in green car parks. From there you walk to your office or you can use bike sharing.
It is surrounded by areas of water, which is typical for the Netherlands. On the clean, car-free roads, you can see self-driving delivery robots, you overhear at least as many English conversations as you can overhear Dutch conversations. An international business atmosphere you don’t have – for example – in Düsseldorf.
The HTC in Eindhoven is not the future. The campus is already 25 years old. It is a reminder for city- and business park planners of how the present should look like. Overall, I feel that in the Netherlands you get a much better infrastructure for a comparable amount of taxes. The world can definetly learn from the Dutch.
Apple released the iPhone 16. It’s just another iPhone. And that makes Apple the most risk-averse technology company in the world. Apple focusses on refinement over revolution. It prioritizes stability and incremental improvements. This strategy minimizes risk but stifles innovation. Can Apple continue to lead without daring to disrupt?
Today, the Apple surely didn’t fall far from the tree-dition.
In the sweltering heat of the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition in Chicago, Clark Stanley captivated audiences with his “rattlesnake oil”—a supposed cure-all he claimed to have learned from Hopi medicine men. With dramatic flair, Stanley sliced open a live snake, plunged it into boiling water, and skimmed off the oil that rose to the surface. The crowds were enthralled, and Stanley’s elixir flew off the shelves.
Of course, we now know that Stanley’s snake oil was merely a concoction of mineral oil, beef fat, and red pepper. The term “snake oil salesman” became synonymous with fraud and quackery. Yet, his story is emblematic of the supplement industry’s early days—a wild west of unsubstantiated claims, questionable ingredients, and outright fraud.
Fast forward a century, and the supplement industry has grown into a behemoth, with a valuation expected to reach $308 billion by 2028. This growth was catalyzed by the discovery of vitamins in the early 20th century. In 1912, Polish biochemist Casimir Funk coined the term “vitamine” to describe essential micronutrients that prevent diseases like scurvy and beriberi. This breakthrough led to the isolation and synthesis of individual vitamins, and by the 1940s, the first commercial vitamin supplements hit the market.
These early supplements marked a significant step forward from the snake oil era, but they were still far from the targeted, science-backed products we see today. Despite explosive growth, many of the same problems persist: one-size-fits-all formulations, opaque manufacturing practices, and a lack of rigorous scientific backing remain common.
Change is on the horizon. As consumers become increasingly health-conscious and tech-savvy, they demand more from their supplements. They want products personalized to their unique needs, backed by rigorous science, and delivered with radical transparency. They want supplements that truly work.
This demand, coupled with advances in genomics, microbiome science, and AI, is setting the stage for a supplement revolution. In the coming years, we’ll see hyper-personalized formulations tailored to an individual’s DNA, gut bacteria, and real-time health data. Bioengineered nutrients that outperform their natural counterparts will emerge, alongside a shift towards radical transparency with blockchain-verified supply chains and publicly available testing results.
Perhaps most excitingly, we’ll see a new era of consumer empowerment, where individuals can co-create their own supplements, experimenting with evidence-backed ingredients to optimize their health in ways once unimaginable.
For entrepreneurs and investors, this revolution presents tremendous opportunities. Companies that harness these trends and technologies will not only disrupt a $250 billion industry but also transform the health, vitality, and longevity of millions worldwide.
In this briefing, I will explore the key trends shaping the future of the dietary supplement industry and identify unconventional investment opportunities that are poised for growth in the coming years. I will examine how exponential technologies are enabling the development of personalized nutrition solutions, the rise of “smart” supplements, and the emergence of new distribution channels that are transforming the way consumers access and purchase supplements.
By the end of this briefing, readers will have a clear understanding of the disruptive forces shaping the future of the dietary supplement industry and the investment opportunities emerging as a result. I’ll challenge conventional wisdom and present a contrarian outlook on where the industry is headed, highlighting the companies and technologies poised to win in the years ahead.
Market Overview
The global dietary supplement market has experienced substantial growth, reaching a market size of $177.5 billion in 2023. Projections indicate continued expansion at a robust CAGR of 9.1% from 2024 to 2030, with an estimated value of $327 billion by 2030. The U.S. market, a significant contributor, was estimated at $54 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 5.7% from 2024 to 2030.
Several key drivers propel this growth, including:
Increasing health consciousness: Consumers proactively seek dietary supplements to enhance overall well-being.
Aging population: Older adults require additional nutritional support to maintain health and address age-related concerns.
Prevalence of chronic diseases: The rise in obesity, diabetes, heart diseases, and cancer drives demand for dietary supplements.
Busy lifestyles and changing dietary patterns: Hectic lifestyles and shifts in dietary habits lead consumers to fill nutritional gaps with supplements.
Sports nutrition and fitness trends: Increased participation in sports and fitness activities fuels demand for supplements supporting performance, recovery, and overall health.
Preventive healthcare focus: Consumers view supplements as a proactive measure to prevent health issues.
E-Commerce: The rise of e-commerce and direct-to-consumer channels improves product accessibility.
As the market expands, companies are investing in research and development to create innovative products targeting specific health concerns and consumer preferences. Novel ingredients, personalized nutrition approaches, and a focus on plant-based and clean-label products are expected to shape the market in the coming years.
Vitamins (A, B, C, and D) and Multivitamins accounted for a substantial 30% market share.
Energy and weight management supplements, primarily influenced by sports enthusiasts, held over 30% share.
Adults, particularly working individuals seeking to maintain a healthy lifestyle, were the largest consumers with a 46.01% revenue share.
OTC sales dominated with a 75.5% revenue share, expected to witness steady growth due to rising consumer awareness of nutritional value and health benefits.
Offline sales accounted for over 80% of revenue, bolstered by an increase in medical practitioner-prescribed supplements for treating various health issues.
Tablets, known for their high-quality excipients aiding in absorption and disintegration, held a 32.3% revenue share.
The Asia Pacific region was dominant, with a 34.9% revenue share, and is anticipated to witness increasing demand as key participants introduce their brands in the untapped markets of Southeast Asia.
The dietary supplement industry is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by shifting consumer preferences, technological advancements, and a growing focus on personalized health. Several key trends are shaping the future of the industry:
Shift Towards Personalized Nutrition
The industry is moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach toward personalized nutrition. Consumers increasingly demand supplements tailored to their unique health profiles, genetic makeup, and lifestyle factors. This trend recognizes that individual nutrient requirements vary widely, and customized supplementation can optimize health outcomes.
Personalized nutrition offers supplement companies a chance to differentiate themselves in a crowded market. By leveraging technologies like AI, machine learning, and genetic testing, companies can develop targeted formulations that address specific health concerns. However, this shift requires significant investments in R&D, data analytics, and supply chain flexibility.
In the personalized nutrition space, Viome stands out alongside Nutrigenomix and 23andMe. Viome uses AI and microbiome analysis to offer personalized health solutions, Nutrigenomix focuses on genetic testing for tailored nutrition, and 23andMe provides consumer genetics services to inform personalized dietary choices.
Plant-Based and Sustainable Supplements
Demand for plant-based and sustainable supplements is rising as consumers seek eco-friendly and ethically sourced alternatives. Concerns about environmental impact, animal welfare, and personal health are driving this trend.
To capitalize on this trend, companies are developing innovative plant-based formulations, sourcing sustainable ingredients, and adopting eco-friendly packaging. Demonstrating a genuine commitment to sustainability and transparency will resonate with environmentally conscious consumers and capture a larger market share.
In the realm of plant-based and sustainable supplements, Plant People, Moon Juice, and New Chapter are leading the charge. Plant People emphasizes regenerative agriculture and minimal plastic use, Moon Juice offers adaptogens with recyclable packaging, and New Chapter focuses on non-GMO ingredients and zero-waste production practices.
Integration of Supplements with Functional Foods and Beverages
The line between supplements and functional foods is blurring as consumers seek convenient ways to incorporate health-promoting nutrients into their diets. This trend creates opportunities for supplement companies to expand their product portfolios and tap into the growing functional food and beverage market.
By integrating supplements into functional foods and beverages, companies can appeal to consumers who prefer to obtain their nutrients from whole food sources rather than pills or powders. This trend is driving innovation in product formulation, with companies developing novel delivery formats such as gummies, chews, and effervescent tablets that offer a more engaging and enjoyable supplement experience. Companies are also exploring synergistic combinations of nutrients and bioactive compounds that can enhance the health benefits of functional foods and beverages.
Innovation in product formulation is key, with companies developing novel delivery formats like gummies and effervescent tablets. Collaborating with food and beverage manufacturers, ensuring ingredient stability and bioavailability, and navigating regulatory landscapes are crucial for success.
In the integration of supplements with functional foods and beverages, established companies like PepsiCo, Nestlé, and USANA Health Sciences are leading the way. PepsiCo innovates with nutrient-rich beverages, Nestlé enhances food products with bioactive compounds, and USANA focuses on science-based functional foods that promote overall wellness.
Growing Interest in Longevity and Anti-Aging Solutions
As the global population ages, interest in supplements promoting healthy aging and longevity is growing. Consumers seek products that maintain physical and cognitive function, prevent chronic diseases, and extend health spans.
To meet this demand, supplement companies are developing targeted formulations that address the key mechanisms of aging, such as oxidative stress, inflammation, and cellular senescence. They are also exploring novel ingredients such as nicotinamide mononucleotide (NMN), resveratrol, and rapamycin analogs, which have shown promise in preclinical studies of aging and longevity.
However, the anti-aging market is rife with hype and misinformation. Success requires rigorous scientific research, transparency, and collaboration with healthcare professionals to ensure product safety and efficacy. As the market matures, expect increased consolidation, partnerships, and investment in this promising area.
In the longevity and anti-aging supplement sector, Elysium Health, Tru Niagen, and Life Extension are prominent players. Elysium Health offers DNA-based personalized supplements, Tru Niagen focuses on NAD+ boosters, and Life Extension provides a range of scientifically-backed anti-aging products.
Technological Impact
The consumer trends are encountering a supplement industry that is undergoing a technological metamorphosis, driven by the convergence of exponential technologies. By harnessing artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology, 3D printing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), the industry is poised to deliver solutions that are not only personalized and targeted but also highly effective in optimizing individual health outcomes. This transformation will disrupt traditional business models and empower consumers with unprecedented control over their well-being.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
AI and machine learning are central to the personalization of supplement formulations. By analyzing vast amounts of health data, including genetic information, microbiome composition, and lifestyle factors, AI can recommend tailored supplement regimens. This personalization ensures consumers receive the right nutrients in the right doses, enhancing supplement effectiveness.
Moreover, AI enables predictive health modeling, allowing companies to address potential health concerns proactively. By identifying patterns and risk factors, AI can predict an individual’s likelihood of developing certain conditions and recommend preventive supplement protocols. This shift from reactive to proactive health optimization marks a significant industry change.
AI also revolutionizes product development. By analyzing consumer preferences, market trends, and scientific research, companies can create innovative formulations that meet evolving demands. This data-driven approach accelerates innovation and ensures new supplements are backed by robust scientific evidence.
Biotechnology and Synthetic Biology
Biotechnology and synthetic biology are opening new frontiers in nutrient production and delivery. Advances in biotechnology and genetic engineering allow for lab-grown nutrients that are identical to natural counterparts but more sustainable and cost-effective.
Engineering probiotics and microbiome modulation represent groundbreaking applications. By designing probiotics that produce specific nutrients or modulate the gut microbiome, companies can develop personalized solutions addressing individual health needs.
Gene-tailored supplements epitomize personalized nutrition. By analyzing genetic profiles, companies can identify specific nutrient requirements and develop formulations that optimize gene expression and cellular function, unlocking new levels of health optimization and disease prevention.
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology revolutionizes nutrient delivery and bioavailability. By encapsulating nutrients in nano-sized particles, companies enhance absorption and targeted delivery to specific tissues. This technology overcomes traditional formulation limitations, improving bioavailability and systemic absorption.
Nano-encapsulation also stabilizes sensitive nutrients, preserving efficacy over time. This is crucial for antioxidants, probiotics, and other delicate compounds prone to degradation.
Smart packaging and anti-counterfeiting measures are critical applications. Incorporating nano-sensors into packaging allows for monitoring product integrity, detecting tampering, and preventing counterfeiting, ensuring consumers receive authentic, high-quality supplements.
3D Printing and Advanced Manufacturing
3D printing enables on-demand production of customized supplements. By creating personalized formulations in small batches, companies eliminate the need for large-scale production, reducing waste and environmental impact.
This technology also allows for novel delivery formats, such as multi-layered supplements that release nutrients at different rates. This precision delivery optimizes nutrient absorption and utilization.
3D printing supports sustainable, localized manufacturing. By producing supplements closer to consumption points, companies reduce transportation costs and carbon footprint, creating a resilient and adaptable supply chain.
IoT and Wearable Technology
IoT and wearable technology transform health monitoring and optimization. By integrating sensors into smart packaging and devices, companies collect real-time data on supplement usage and efficacy. This data provides insights into individual needs, allowing for dynamic adjustments to dosage and formulation.
Wearable devices track health metrics like nutrient levels and stress, providing a holistic health view. AI algorithms use this data to generate personalized supplement recommendations, advancing beyond static, one-size-fits-all approaches.
Integrating IoT and wearable tech with digital health platforms creates a seamless health optimization ecosystem. By connecting supplement data with other health metrics, individuals gain comprehensive health insights, enabling informed supplement regimen decisions. This integration is crucial for adopting personalized, data-driven supplementation.
Analysis
Based on the technological progress and consumer trends, we believe that the dietary supplement industry, long reliant on standardized solutions and traditional delivery methods, is on the cusp of a transformative revolution. My analysis suggests that foundational assumptions are being challenged, presenting unprecedented opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors ready to capitalize on these shifts.
The End of One-Size-Fits-All
The era of one-size-fits-all supplementation is rapidly becoming obsolete. The future lies in hyper-personalization, driven by advances in genetic testing, microbiome analysis, and real-time health monitoring. This paradigm shift will render current product lines and business models largely irrelevant.
Imagine a supplement regimen tailored not just to an individual’s genetic makeup, but dynamically adjusted based on microbiome composition, stress levels, and even environmental factors like sunlight exposure and local food availability. The opportunity lies not in traditional supplement companies, but in AI-driven platforms that can process this complex web of data and formulate real-time supplement recommendations. Within a decade, leading supplement providers will resemble tech companies more than traditional nutrition firms.
Redefining Efficacy and Bioavailability
The current approach to efficacy and bioavailability is fundamentally flawed. The future lies in integrated health ecosystems where supplements are dynamic components of holistic health platforms. Imagine a regimen that automatically adjusts based on your latest blood work, microbiome samples, sleep patterns, and emotional state as detected by wearable devices. This is the logical evolution of trends in digital health and personalized medicine.
Investors should look beyond traditional manufacturers to companies developing advanced biomarkers, AI-driven health platforms, and next-generation wearable devices. The real value will be in the ecosystem, not individual products.
The Synthetic Revolution
The industry’s reverence for natural sources is a constraint that innovative companies will soon overcome. The future in dietary supplements belongs to synthetic and bioengineered nutrients that outperform natural counterparts in bioavailability, safety, and sustainability.
“Super nutrients”—synthetic compounds combining the benefits of multiple vitamins or minerals into a single molecule—will emerge, representing a new category of nutritional science. Companies at the forefront of this synthetic revolution will disrupt the supplement industry and potentially impact agriculture and global nutrition.
Investors should focus on companies at the intersection of synthetic biology and nutritional science. The potential here extends beyond supplements to address global challenges in food security and nutrition.
Reimagining Delivery
The assumption that oral ingestion is the optimal delivery method for supplements is ripe for disruption. The future points to nutrients being delivered directly to cells, bypassing the digestive system entirely.
Imagine transdermal patches delivering a day’s worth of vitamins, inhalable nutrients absorbed instantly through the lungs, or nanotech-enabled supplements targeting specific cells or organs. These innovations represent a fundamental reimagining of how we interact with nutritional supplements.
Furthermore, the line between food and supplements will blur. Functional foods engineered to contain therapeutic levels of nutrients could render traditional supplements obsolete for many consumers.
Investors should consider companies developing advanced drug delivery systems, as these technologies will likely find applications in the supplement industry. Additionally, food tech companies working on nutrient-enhanced products could become major players in this new landscape.
Investment and Business Opportunities
The dietary supplement market is poised for disruption through technology. While the current landscape is dominated by conventional approaches, such as influencer-driven brands, the real opportunities lie in harnessing underappreciated technological trends. Successful companies will leverage AI, synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and 3D printing to lead the personalized nutrition revolution. Those who act now have the chance to capture significant market share.
AI-Powered Supplement Formulation and Precision Nutrition Platforms
One of the most promising opportunities is the development of AI-powered platforms for personalized supplement formulation. By using machine learning to analyze individual health data—such as genetic information, microbiome composition, and lifestyle factors—these platforms can generate highly targeted supplement recommendations.
This shift requires moving from mass manufacturing to personalized production, integrating big data and AI with precision manufacturing and medical testing. This creates a high barrier to entry, leading to market consolidation. Entrepreneurs and investors can create value by building vertically integrated platforms that combine AI-driven formulation with direct-to-consumer distribution and subscription models. Partnerships with testing companies, wearable device manufacturers, and healthcare providers will be crucial.
Blockchain technology can enhance data privacy, security, and transparency, ensuring a tamper-proof record of health data and supplement history. It can also be used in the supply chain to track ingredient sourcing and quality, boosting consumer trust.
Synthetic Biology and Fermentation-Derived Nutrient Production
Synthetic biology and fermentation technology offer disruptive potential in nutrient production. By engineering microorganisms to produce high-value compounds such as rare cannabinoids, adaptogens, and nootropics, entrepreneurs can create new categories of supplements with superior efficacy and sustainability.
Startups specializing in proprietary strains of yeast or algae can leverage advanced fermentation technologies to optimize yield and cost-efficiency. Partnerships with supplement brands and food companies can provide access to novel ingredients, while licensing technology to pharmaceutical firms can open new avenues for drug development.
Investors can pursue buy-and-build strategies, acquiring synthetic biology startups and integrating them into a nutrient production platform. Strategic investments in fermentation infrastructure can create a robust supply chain for next-generation supplements.
3D Printed Personalized Supplements with Nanotechnology-Enhanced Delivery
Combining 3D printing and nanotechnology presents a unique opportunity to create personalized supplements with enhanced bioavailability. By producing customized formulations on-demand, entrepreneurs can offer bespoke nutrition experiences tailored to individual health needs.
3D printed supplements can incorporate nanotechnology-based delivery systems to improve nutrient absorption and bioavailability. This enables the development of supplements with superior efficacy and faster onset, addressing challenges like poor solubility and degradation.
These supplements can release nutrients in a controlled manner, mimicking natural digestion and minimizing side effects. They can also be formulated with synergistic nutrient combinations targeting specific health outcomes.
Entrepreneurs can create direct-to-consumer platforms for personalized supplement recommendations and orders. Integration with smart packaging and IoT-enabled dispensers can provide real-time tracking of intake and efficacy.
Investors can support 3D printing startups specializing in personalized supplement production, providing capital for scaling operations. Strategic partnerships with established brands can offer access to cutting-edge 3D printing and nanotechnology capabilities, enabling differentiated product lines.
My Perspective
My analysis leads to a provocative conclusion: the supplement industry as we know it today will cease to exist within two decades. In its place will emerge a highly personalized, technology-driven ecosystem of nutrition management that bears little resemblance to the current market.
The convergence of exponential technologies—AI, synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and advanced manufacturing—will enable personalized, targeted, and highly effective supplements that optimize health outcomes and slow biological aging. This shift will drive the industry towards lab-grown nutrients, novel delivery formats, and decentralized manufacturing networks.
The winners in this new paradigm will be those who harness the power of data, AI, and advanced biotechnology to deliver truly personalized solutions. Companies that effectively leverage these technologies to create targeted, science-backed products will be well-positioned to capture market share and drive growth.
For investors, the implications are clear:
Look beyond traditional supplement companies to tech firms entering the health and nutrition space.
Invest in companies developing advanced diagnostics and real-time health monitoring technologies.
Pay close attention to synthetic biology startups working on next-generation nutrients.
Consider the potential of companies developing novel drug delivery systems, as these technologies will likely find applications in nutrition.
Don’t overlook food tech companies working on nutrient-enhanced products, as the line between food and supplements blurs.
This paradigm shift will likely disrupt traditional players, favoring innovative startups leveraging new technologies. Key investment opportunities lie in AI-powered personalized supplement platforms, synthetic biology startups developing lab-grown nutrients, and IoT-enabled decentralized manufacturing networks.
I believe the supplement market is poised for growth beyond current projections, driven by increasing demand for transparent, natural, and science-backed health solutions. I anticipate a convergence of the supplement, functional food, and pharmaceutical industries, leading to more holistic health solutions and increased M&A activity.
Success in this evolving landscape will require adept navigation of technological, scientific, regulatory, and consumer trends, while maintaining a focus on promoting human health and well-being. Companies that balance these factors and deliver innovative, personalized solutions will be well-positioned to thrive in the future of the supplement industry.
Over the years, I’ve had numerous conversations with entrepreneurs, inventors, and companies seeking sales support (primarily in the German market). These discussions have revolved around various forms of collaboration, from business partnerships and freelance arrangements to full-time employment.
Through these interactions, I’ve noticed a common pitfall: a reluctance to offer competitive compensation. Companies often fail to recognize that when it comes to attracting top-performing salespeople, compensation is the most critical factor. Aligning sales success directly with compensation is essential, as it directly impacts your cash flow. Failing to do so will likely result in attracting mediocre talent at best.
Imagine a garden where you plant seeds but refuse to water them adequately. Just as a plant needs sufficient water to grow and flourish, a salesperson needs proper compensation to stay motivated and deliver outstanding results. If you deprive your sales team of the nourishment they need in the form of competitive pay and incentives, you’ll end up with a garden full of wilted, underperforming plants. On the other hand, by generously watering your garden and providing the right nutrients, you create an environment where your sales team can thrive, ultimately yielding a bountiful harvest for your company.
Aim for a compensation structure that rewards ambition and drive: uncapped, sky-high commissions that motivate your sales team to reach for the stars. Let’s say you offer a generous 25% commission on every deal closed. For instance, if a sales person closes $800,000 worth of deals in one year, they would earn $200,000 in commission alone. At first glance, it might seem like a hefty expense for your company. However, consider the alternative: a meager 5% commission. They will close fewer deals, let’s say $500,000, and be left with $25,000. That leaves your sales team feeling undervalued and unmotivated.
In this scenario, paying a higher commission is like investing in premium fuel for a high-performance engine. Sure, it costs more upfront, but it propels your sales machine to operate at its full potential, closing deals left and right. On the other hand, opting for a cheaper, low-octane fuel might save you a few pennies per gallon, but it will leave your engine sputtering and struggling to reach its destination.
Moreover, when you prioritize top-line revenue and free cash flow, you create a virtuous cycle of growth. The more deals your motivated sales team closes, the more resources you have to reinvest in your business, fueling further expansion. Focusing on margin optimization early on is like trying to fill a leaky bucket – no matter how efficiently you pour water in, it will keep draining away. Instead, concentrate on increasing the size of your bucket (i.e., your revenue) first, and worry about patching the leaks (i.e., optimizing margins) later.
Finally, don’t be afraid to increase your prices to accommodate some of the cost of compensating your top performers. Just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a small price increase across the board can create the budget necessary to attract and retain the best sales talent in the industry. Your customers will hardly notice the difference, but your sales team will be invigorated by the opportunity to earn what they’re truly worth. In the end, everyone wins: your company, your sales team, and your customers who benefit from a superior product or service backed by a passionate, motivated sales force.
In recent years, the trend of collecting passports has gained popularity. Countries like St. Kitts and Nevis, Malta, Cyprus, or Antigua and Barbuda offer easy access to citizenship through investments or relocation. But what is the real worth of these passports?
The most crucial factor, I believe, is the diplomatic resources and leverage a country possesses and employs for its citizens. Imagine you are a sovereign individual, traveling the world, and suddenly, without any legal justification, a country arrests you. It could be due to a social media post or mere corruption.
In such a scenario, the critical questions are: Will your country of citizenship care about your arrest? Do they have the diplomatic resources to assist you? And do they possess the necessary leverage to intervene on your behalf? For countries like St. Kitts and Nevis, Malta, or Antigua and Barbuda, the answer to all three questions is likely no.
The current cases of Pavel Durov and Roger Ver serve as a revealing case studies. Durov holds multiple citizenships, including those from Saint Kitts and Nevis, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia. As we can observe, St. Kitts and Nevis have shown no concern, lack the ability to act, and have zero leverage to help him. The UAE, despite withdrawing contracts worth billions of Euros from France, seems to lack sufficient leverage to assist him. Russia, Durov’s country of birth, has demonstrated concern and possesses the diplomatic pressure and leverage to aid him, although the extent to which they will intervene remains uncertain due to Durov’s political alienation from the Kremlin.
The crux of my argument is this: if you value your freedom, be cautious about which citizenships you acquire or relinquish. Consider whether the country will care, possess the diplomatic capability to assist you internationally, and have the necessary leverage to do so.
Passports from global powers like the United States, Russia, and China rank high on the list, as these nations have the requisite leverage on the global political landscape to not only care but also take action to protect their citizens from unjust situations.
Other countries whose citizenship holds significant diplomatic value include neutral nations with effective global diplomatic presence, such as Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Japan, and Hong Kong, and potentially – the case of Pavel Durov will tell – the UAE.
A decade ago, I would have included countries like Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and the Netherlands in this list. However, these countries’ credibility on the global stage is diminishing with each passing day.
While having multiple citizenships is advantageous, ensure that you hold at least one from a country with the interest, capability, and leverage to provide genuine diplomatic assistance when needed.
A citizenship without diplomatic resources is merely a piece of paper or a residence permit at best.
